Steven Madden Ltd (SHOO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $3.1B · ISIN US5562691080
What is Steven Madden Ltd really worth?
Steven Madden Ltd
SHOO · US
A solid business, but trading 101% above our fair value of $21.04.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $11.69 to $21.04 (+80.0%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price −13.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($15.57 to $28.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.95 – $49.07 · fair‑value band $15.57 – $28.60 · the $42.30 price screens above the $21.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Steven Madden Ltd (SHOO) currently trades at $42.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.04, implying the stock looks roughly 101.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $21.15 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $42.30 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $4.13, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Steven Madden Ltd generated revenue of $2.6B at a net margin of 2.9%. Revenue grew 18.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.6%. Net debt stands at $374M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $15.57 (bear case) to $28.60 (bull case); at $42.30, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 93% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 43% fair-value upside, at −50%, SHOO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.1489 per share, which is 0.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($21.15) versus Economic Profit ($4.13). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Steven Madden, Ltd. designs, sources, and markets fashion-forward branded and private label footwear, accessories, and apparel in the United States and internationally. It operates through Wholesale Footwear, Wholesale Accessories/Apparel, Direct-to- Consumer, and Licensing segments.
Full company description
Steven Madden, Ltd. designs, sources, and markets fashion-forward branded and private label footwear, accessories, and apparel in the United States and internationally. It operates through Wholesale Footwear, Wholesale Accessories/Apparel, Direct-to- Consumer, and Licensing segments. The company designs, sources, and markets various products, including dress shoes, boots, booties, fashion sneakers, sandals, and casual shoes; and handbags, apparel, small leather goods, belts, soft accessories, fashion scarves, wraps, gifting, and other accessories. It also engages in the sale of footwear, handbags, apparel, and other accessories. In addition, the company is involved in the licensing of the Steve Madden, Kurt Geiger, and Betsey Johnson trademarks for the sale of select apparel, accessory, home categories, and other non-core products. It sells its products under the Steve Madden, Kurt Geiger London, Dolce Vita, Betsey Johnson, Blondo, Carvela, Anthony Thomas Melillo (ATM), and Anne Klein brands. The company distributes its products in the wholesale channel through department stores, mass merchants, off-price retailers, shoe chains, online retailers, national chains, specialty retailers, independent stores, and clubs, as well as through direct-to-consumer channel, which includes company-operated retail stores and e-commerce websites. It markets its products through email, social media, influencer partnerships, print, experiential events, and public relations. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Long Island City, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Steven Madden Ltd reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was $44.7M in FY2025, compounding −30.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.6 % · buybacks/dilution +2.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
SHOO screens 101% overvalued. Compare with NIKE, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Steven Madden (SHOO) Dropped, So Why Is The Stock Back In Focus?
- Steven Madden (SHOO) Stock Looks About Right After Its 72% Run
- Zacks Industry Outlook adidas, Steven, Wolverine, Carter's and Caleres
Peer Group
Footwear & Accessories · 93 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Footwear & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIKE, Inc NKE | $38.44 | $35.63 | −7% |
| Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK | $87.76 | $125.16 | +43% |
| On Holding ONON | $31.03 | $17.79 | −43% |
| Zhejiang China Commodities City Group 600415 | ¥12.61 | ¥13.03 | +3% |
| Birkenstock Holding BIRK | $33.95 | $44.93 | +32% |
| Crocs, Inc CROX | $122.23 | $203.65 | +67% |
| Huali Industrial Group 300979 | ¥34.24 | ¥51.36 | +50% |
| PUMA SE PUM | €25.63 | €10.57 | −59% |
| Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Limited 0551 | HK$13.65 | HK$31.67 | +132% |
| Samsonite Group 1910 | HK$13.20 | HK$36.62 | +177% |
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