On Holding Ltd (ONON) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $12.5B · ISIN CH1134540470
What is On Holding Ltd really worth?
On Holding Ltd
ONON · US
A solid business, but trading 59% above our fair value of $17.79.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from $17.53 to $17.79 (+1.5%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −24.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.24). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.00 – $63.62 · fair‑value band $13.34 – $22.24 · the $28.36 price screens above the $17.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
On Holding Ltd (ONON) currently trades at $28.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.79, implying the stock looks roughly 59.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $30.04 per share, and 8 of the 24 models we run sit above the $28.36 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.64, and 16 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, On Holding Ltd generated revenue of $3.1B at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue grew 14.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $439M. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.34 (bear case) to $22.24 (bull case); at $28.36, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 43% fair-value upside, at −37%, ONON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.6523 per share, which is 3.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($30.04) versus Asset-Based ($3.64). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 9
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific.
Full company description
On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories for performance running, performance outdoor, performance all day, performance training, performance tennis, and young movers. It sells its products to athletes and active customers through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels; run specialty, general sporting goods, outdoor, luxury, street fashion, and lifestyle retailers; owned retail stores; and e-commerce platforms. On Holding AG was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
On Holding Ltd reported revenue of CHF 2.9B in FY2025 versus CHF 725M in FY2021, a compound +41.2%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 195M in FY2025.
ONON screens 59% overvalued. Compare with NIKE, Inc →
Peer Group
Footwear & Accessories · 93 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Footwear & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIKE, Inc NKE | $38.44 | $35.63 | −7% |
| Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK | $87.76 | $125.16 | +43% |
| Zhejiang China Commodities City Group 600415 | ¥12.61 | ¥13.03 | +3% |
| Birkenstock Holding BIRK | $33.95 | $44.93 | +32% |
| Crocs, Inc CROX | $122.23 | $203.65 | +67% |
| Huali Industrial Group 300979 | ¥34.24 | ¥51.36 | +50% |
| PUMA SE PUM | €25.63 | €10.57 | −59% |
| Steven Madden, Ltd SHOO | $47.70 | $11.69 | −75% |
| Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Limited 0551 | HK$13.65 | HK$31.67 | +132% |
| Samsonite Group 1910 | HK$13.20 | HK$36.62 | +177% |
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