NIKE, Inc (NKE) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $63.4B
NIKE, Inc
NKE · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −3.8% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 14% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($23.75 to $44.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $23.75 (bear) to $44.54 (bull), base $35.63. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 76/100 (high quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $40.51 – $163.63 · fair‑value band $23.75 – $44.54 · the $41.23 price screens above the $35.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
NIKE, Inc (NKE) currently trades at $41.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.63, implying the stock looks roughly 13.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, NIKE, Inc generated revenue of $46.5B at a net margin of 4.8%. Revenue grew 0.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.0%. Net debt stands at $3.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $23.75 (bear case) to $44.54 (bull case); at $41.23, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -14%, NKE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($40.93) versus Asset-Based ($6.72). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NIKE, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and sells athletic and casual footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories, and services for men, women, and kids in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Greater China, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
Full company description
NIKE, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and sells athletic and casual footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories, and services for men, women, and kids in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Greater China, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company offers its products under the NIKE, Jordan, Jumpman, Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell trademarks. It also provides a line of performance equipment and accessories, including bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment, and other equipment for sports activities, as well as various plastic products to other manufacturers; distributes and licenses casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories; and markets apparel with licensed college and professional team and league logos. In addition, the company offers consumer services and experiences, including sport focused events and activations; fitness and activity apps; sport, fitness, and wellness content; and digital services and features in retail stores. It sells its products to footwear stores; sporting goods stores; athletic specialty stores; department stores; skate, tennis, and golf shops; and other wholesale accounts through NIKE-owned retail stores, independent distributors, licensees, sales representatives, and digital platforms. The company was formerly known as Blue Ribbon Sports, Inc. and changed its name to NIKE, Inc. in May 1971. NIKE, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
NIKE, Inc reported revenue of $46.4B in FY2026 versus $46.7B in FY2022, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was $3.1B in FY2026, compounding −15.3%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +4.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.7 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NKE screens 14% overvalued. Compare with adidas AG →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Target Overtakes Nike in Market Value
- Nike’s Founder Has Moved $9 Billion to His Heirs and the Gift-Tax Bill Was Roughly $0. The Trust He Used Has a Name and It’s Legal in All 50
- Nike (NKE) Stock Looks Reasonable On Cash Flow While Earnings Look Rich
Peer Group
Footwear & Accessories · 93 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 88/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Footwear & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| adidas AG 1ADS | €158.15 | €65.71 | -58% |
| Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK | $93.84 | $125.16 | +33% |
| On Holding ONON | $30.91 | $17.53 | -43% |
| Zhejiang China Commodities City Group 600415 | ¥11.81 | ¥13.03 | +10% |
| Birkenstock Holding BIRK | $36.74 | $44.59 | +21% |
| Crocs, Inc CROX | $130.61 | $203.65 | +56% |
| Huali Industrial Group 300979 | ¥36.73 | ¥51.36 | +40% |
| PUMA SE PUM | €26.69 | €10.57 | -60% |
| Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Limited 0551 | HK$13.64 | HK$4.04 | -70% |
| Samsonite Group 1910 | HK$13.57 | HK$4.67 | -66% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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