Royal Gold Inc (RGLD) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $22.5B · ISIN US7802871084
What is Royal Gold Inc really worth?
Royal Gold Inc
RGLD · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 233% above our fair value of $79.53.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +28.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($99.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $82.56 – $303.02 · fair‑value band $59.64 – $99.40 · the $264.85 price screens above the $79.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Royal Gold Inc (RGLD) currently trades at $264.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $79.53, implying the stock looks roughly 233.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $237.15 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $264.85 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $56.60, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Royal Gold Inc generated revenue of $1.3B at a net margin of 48.9%. Revenue grew 143.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.0%. Net debt stands at $732M. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $59.64 (bear case) to $99.40 (bull case); at $264.85, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −70%, RGLD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $5.59 per share, which is 7.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($237.15) versus Asset-Based ($56.60). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Royal Gold, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties, and related interests in North America, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Australia Pacific.
Full company description
Royal Gold, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties, and related interests in North America, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Australia Pacific. It operates through Acquisition and Management of Stream Interests and Acquisition and Management of Royalty Interests segments. The company engages in the acquisition of existing stream and royalty interests; and the financing of projects that are in production, development, or in the exploration stage in exchange for stream or royalty interests, which consists of gold, silver, copper, nickel, zinc, lead, molybdenum, diamonds, uranium, iron, platinum, palladium, rhodium, lithium, titanium, cobalt, barite, tungsten, and coal. Its properties are located in Canada, Chile, the Dominican Republic, the United States, Zambia, Australia, Ghana, Brazil, Mexico, Bolivia, Argentina, Nicaragua, Macedonia, Botswana, Spain, and internationally. Royal Gold, Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Denver, Colorado.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Royal Gold Inc reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $645M in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was $466M in FY2025, compounding +14.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +12.7 % · buybacks/dilution −0.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
RGLD screens 233% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Royal Gold Presenting at the 2026 Jefferies Global Industrials Conference
- Higher Prices, Production Send Royal Gold Shares Up
- Royal Gold Announces Fourth Quarter Dividend
Peer Group
Gold · 245 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $128.00 | $112.82 | −12% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥32.21 | ¥39.42 | +22% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$268.76 | C$213.40 | −21% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $41.23 | $50.66 | +23% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $271.31 | $96.63 | −64% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$201.40 | C$56.05 | −72% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $97.92 | $88.63 | −9% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $32.51 | $34.62 | +6% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$23.19 | A$15.98 | −31% |
| Lundin Gold Inc LUG | kr 708.00 | kr 504.76 | −29% |
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