Royal Gold, Inc (RGLD) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $16.1B
Royal Gold, Inc
RGLD · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +16.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 59% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($116.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $82.56 – $303.02 · fair‑value band $70.05 – $116.75 · the $225.98 price screens above the $93.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Royal Gold, Inc (RGLD) currently trades at $225.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $93.40, implying the stock looks roughly 58.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Royal Gold, Inc generated revenue of $1.3B at a net margin of 48.9%. Revenue grew 143.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.0%. Net debt stands at $732M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $70.05 (bear case) to $116.75 (bull case); at $225.98, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at -59%, RGLD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($236.77) versus Asset-Based ($56.50). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Royal Gold, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties, and related interests in North America, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Australia Pacific.
Full company description
Royal Gold, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties, and related interests in North America, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Australia Pacific. It operates through Acquisition and Management of Stream Interests and Acquisition and Management of Royalty Interests segments. The company engages in the acquisition of existing stream and royalty interests; and the financing of projects that are in production, development, or in the exploration stage in exchange for stream or royalty interests, which consists of gold, silver, copper, nickel, zinc, lead, molybdenum, diamonds, uranium, iron, platinum, palladium, rhodium, lithium, titanium, cobalt, barite, tungsten, and coal. Its properties are located in Canada, Chile, the Dominican Republic, the United States, Zambia, Australia, Ghana, Brazil, Mexico, Bolivia, Argentina, Nicaragua, Macedonia, Botswana, Spain, and internationally. Royal Gold, Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Denver, Colorado.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Royal Gold, Inc reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $645M in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was $466M in FY2025, compounding +14.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +12.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
RGLD screens 59% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- RGLD Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Surge Y/Y on Metal Prices
- Royal Gold (RGLD) Is Up 7.4% After Strong Q2 2026 Results And Higher Full-Year Volume Guidance
- Royal Gold Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Royal Gold Reports Strong Second Quarter Financial Results Including Record Operating Cash Flow, Repurchase of Shares and Further Repayment
Peer Group
Gold · 248 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $112.82 | +1% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥32.21 | ¥39.42 | +22% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$257.82 | C$154.33 | -40% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $41.23 | $50.66 | +23% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$187.84 | C$52.47 | -72% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$334.84 | C$97.76 | -71% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $97.92 | $88.63 | -9% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $40.73 | $59.06 | +45% |
| Zijin Gold International Company 2259 | HK$135.60 | HK$96.81 | -29% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $27.48 | $34.62 | +26% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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