Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kinross Gold Corporation stock $17.88, price $22.68, upside -21.2%, quality 84 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.88 – $37.92 · fair‑value band $9.87 – $23.56 · the $22.68 price screens above the $17.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Kinross Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of gold properties principally in the United States, Brazil, Chile, Canada, and Mauritania.
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It is also involved in the extraction and processing of gold-containing ores; reclamation of gold mining properties; and production and sale of silver. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) currently trades at $22.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.88, 21.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $51.78 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the $22.68 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.62, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.87 (bear) to $23.56 (bull), the price of $22.68 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 84/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Kinross Gold Corporation reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2025 versus $2.6B in FY2021, a compound +28.9%/yr. Reported net income was $2.4B in FY2025, compounding +82.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $27.1B Large · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 3.20 · EPS (TTM) $2.63 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 37.5% · Return on equity 37.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 88 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −21%, KGC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$9.87Fair Value $17.88Bull$23.56
Price $22.68 · Upside -21.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.01 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+15.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.45% → 43%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.5% a year for the price and +5.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Strong reported margins from its largest low-cost operations form the main strength, while the commodity nature of gold and thin signals leave little evidence of a durable moat.
Main risk: Weather and operational setbacks at smaller sites could reduce overall output and pressure free cash flow from the core low-cost assets.
Kinross lowered its full-year production guidance for 2026 and 2027 after weather and operational setbacks hit two smaller sites. Its largest low-cost operations keep performing well while the company stays focused on free cash flow and capital returns. Our models see the stock as overvalued, yet will the October results confirm that these core assets can offset the recent shortfalls or reveal ongoing pressures on output?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 208 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score84 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−21.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)37.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets19.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)37.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)52.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)29.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.88 versus a price of $22.68, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KGC?
Our model-based fair value for Kinross Gold Corporation is $17.88 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.68.
What is the quality score of KGC?
Kinross Gold Corporation has a Quality Score of 84/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.88 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.87, optimistic scenario $23.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kinross Gold Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.88, about −21% upside versus a price of $22.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.87, optimistic scenario $23.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
Kinross Gold Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Kinross Gold Corporation pay a dividend?
Kinross Gold Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 0.68% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kinross Gold Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -1.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.2 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KGC use?
Our models discount Kinross Gold Corporation at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.52, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kinross Gold Corporation that is -1.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kinross Gold Corporation grew +11.2 % a year. The price currently implies -1.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kinross Gold Corporation (-1.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.48 %: that much free cash flow Kinross Gold Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kinross Gold Corporation it is $17.88 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $22.68. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kinross Gold Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, KGC trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.68, fair value $17.88, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KGC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.88). For Kinross Gold Corporation the two are $4.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kinross Gold Corporation worth?
The market values Kinross Gold Corporation at about $27.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $22.68; our models calculate a fair value of $17.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KGC?
Our models span a range for Kinross Gold Corporation: cautious scenario $9.87, base $17.88, optimistic $23.56 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $22.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KGC?
Kinross Gold Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.88 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 13.3 (reported for FY2025: 11.4). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 13.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 3.2, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
What is the PEG ratio of KGC?
The PEG ratio of Kinross Gold Corporation is 1.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kinross Gold Corporation (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 37.0%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 84/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KGC from its 52-week high?
Kinross Gold Corporation trades at $22.68, about 40% below its 52-week high of $37.92 and 2% above the low of $22.24 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kinross Gold Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kinross Gold Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $22.68, calculated fair value $17.88 (−21%), Quality Score 84/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KGC calculated?
We run Kinross Gold Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Kinross Gold Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $22.68. Our model-based fair value is $17.88, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kinross Gold Corporation right now?
A high-quality business (quality 84/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range ($9.87 to $23.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Kinross Gold Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
The market capitalisation of Kinross Gold Corporation is $27.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kinross Gold Corporation is 3.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
Earnings per share at Kinross Gold Corporation are $2.63 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
The dividend yield of Kinross Gold Corporation is 0.7% (payout 6.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 5.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
The net margin of Kinross Gold Corporation is 37.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kinross Gold Corporation is 37.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kinross Gold Corporation is 9.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
The operating margin of Kinross Gold Corporation is 52.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
Revenue at Kinross Gold Corporation is growing +29.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)?
Earnings per share at Kinross Gold Corporation are growing +64.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) hold?
Kinross Gold Corporation holds more cash than debt, $975M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026