Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Pan American Silver Corp. stock $50.26, price $41.07, upside +22.4%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.64 – $68.06 · fair‑value band $28.02 – $65.33 · the $41.07 price screens below the $50.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Pan American Silver Corp. engages in the exploration, mine development, extraction, processing, refining, and reclamation of mines in Chile, Peru, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, Argentina, Bolivia, and Guatemala.
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The Silver segment includes the La Colorada, Juanicipio, Cerro Moro, Huaron, and San Vicente mines. The Gold segment comprises the Jacobina, El Peñon, Timmins, Shahuindo, Minera Florida, and Dolores mines. It explores silver, gold, zinc, lead, and copper deposits.
The company was formerly known as Pan American Minerals Corp. and changed its name to Pan American Silver Corp. in April 1995. Pan American Silver Corp. was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) currently trades at $41.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $50.26, implying the stock looks roughly 18.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $59.58 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the $41.07 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.74, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $28.02 (bear) to $65.33 (bull), the price of $41.07 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Pan American Silver Corp. reported revenue of $3.7B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +22.5%/yr. Reported net income was $995M in FY2025, compounding +78.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $17.3B Large · P/E ratio 12.2 · P/S ratio 4.00 · EPS (TTM) $3.38 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 32.0% · Return on equity 22.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 81 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 22%, PAAS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$28.02Fair Value $50.26Bull$65.33
Price $41.07 · Upside +22.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.24 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$36.87$58.31$114.1477
Growth DCF$35.18$62.43$109.1476
Residual Income$15.71$19.30$28.3975
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$36.87$58.31$114.1477
Owner Earnings$39.93$81.69$159.8672
5Y Revenue Exit$19.21$29.55$47.7071
5Y EBITDA Exit$32.96$59.58$105.2772
5Y P/E Exit$32.62$62.73$100.6869
10Y Revenue Exit$24.59$39.02$54.8966
10Y EBITDA Exit$33.90$62.81$113.5165
10Y P/E Exit$33.67$62.22$109.4361
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$16.32$111.33$156.0963
Lynch FV$32.71$46.73$60.7561
PEG = 1.0$32.71$46.73$60.7557
EPV$19.70$22.32$24.5374
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$3.45$6.37$8.9667
DDM Multi-Stage$3.45$5.74$6.7967
Multiples
P/E Multiple$30.60$40.80$51.0063
P/S Multiple$9.99$13.32$16.6558
P/B Multiple$37.86$50.48$63.0955
EV/EBIT$30.77$40.80$50.8366
EV/EBITDA$31.79$42.17$52.5467
EV/Revenue$9.99$13.99$17.9954
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$8.41$11.27$16.8354
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$35.18$62.43$109.1476
Rev-Margin DCF$19.21$31.09$48.4671
Economic Profit
Residual Income$15.71$19.30$28.3975
ROIC Compounder$21.62$29.57$35.4272
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$41.39$59.13$76.8667
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.5% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+38.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+37.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.36.5% vs 14.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 32%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.3% a year for the price and +5.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Thin evidence across categories leaves this commodity producer with limited differentiation, yet the La Colorada Skarn project advances a major silver resource expansion amid near-term output shortfalls.
Main risk: Shortfalls at several operations guide gold production to the low end of the annual range, pressuring overall output targets.
Pan American Silver has started development of the 588 Decline at La Colorada Skarn in Mexico, a key step toward unlocking a large new silver resource that could support much higher long-term output. At the same time, gold production is now guided to the low end of the annual range due to shortfalls at several operations. Will the silver expansion from projects like this deliver enough to outweigh the near-term production pressures across the portfolio?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 208 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+22.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.4% · Above median
Return on assets10.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)32.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)37.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)38.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pan American Silver Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PAAS
Frequently asked questions
Is Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $50.26 versus a price of $41.07, about +22% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PAAS?
Our model-based fair value for Pan American Silver Corp. is $50.26 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $41.07.
What is the quality score of PAAS?
Pan American Silver Corp. has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $50.26 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.02, optimistic scenario $65.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pan American Silver Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $50.26, about +22% upside versus a price of $41.07 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $28.02, optimistic scenario $65.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
Pan American Silver Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Pan American Silver Corp. pay a dividend?
Pan American Silver Corp. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.51% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pan American Silver Corp. would have to grow free cash flow by +6.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.4 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PAAS use?
Our models discount Pan American Silver Corp. at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.59, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pan American Silver Corp. that is +6.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pan American Silver Corp. grew +22.4 % a year. The price currently implies +6.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pan American Silver Corp. (+6.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.27 %: that much free cash flow Pan American Silver Corp. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pan American Silver Corp. it is $50.26 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $41.07. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pan American Silver Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, PAAS trades below its calculated fair value: price $41.07, fair value $50.26, a gap of about +22% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PAAS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($41.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($50.26). For Pan American Silver Corp. the two are $9.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pan American Silver Corp. worth?
The market values Pan American Silver Corp. at about $17.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $41.07; our models calculate a fair value of $50.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PAAS?
Our models span a range for Pan American Silver Corp.: cautious scenario $28.02, base $50.26, optimistic $65.33 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $41.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PAAS?
Pan American Silver Corp. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $50.26 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 11.0 (reported for FY2025: 15.7). Other multiples: PEG 7.0, P/B 2.5, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 7.9.
What is the PEG ratio of PAAS?
The PEG ratio of Pan American Silver Corp. is 7.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pan American Silver Corp. (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 22.4%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PAAS from its 52-week high?
Pan American Silver Corp. trades at $41.07, about 40% below its 52-week high of $68.06 and 25% above the low of $32.77 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $50.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pan American Silver Corp.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pan American Silver Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $41.07, calculated fair value $50.26 (+22%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PAAS calculated?
We run Pan American Silver Corp. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $50.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Pan American Silver Corp. currently trades 18 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $41.07. Our model-based fair value is $50.26, about +22% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pan American Silver Corp. right now?
Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($28.02 to $65.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Pan American Silver Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
The market capitalisation of Pan American Silver Corp. is $17.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pan American Silver Corp. is 4.00 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
Earnings per share at Pan American Silver Corp. are $3.38 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
The dividend yield of Pan American Silver Corp. is 1.5% (payout 12.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 18.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
The net margin of Pan American Silver Corp. is 32.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pan American Silver Corp. is 22.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pan American Silver Corp. is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
The operating margin of Pan American Silver Corp. is 37.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
Revenue at Pan American Silver Corp. is growing +38.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)?
Earnings per share at Pan American Silver Corp. are growing +38.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) hold?
Pan American Silver Corp. holds more cash than debt, $277M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026