Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A stock ¥15.62, price ¥28.79, upside -45.8%, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.35 – ¥43.45 · fair‑value band ¥8.32 – ¥22.97 · the ¥28.79 price screens above the ¥15.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
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Zijin Mining Group Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploration and extraction of metals in Mainland China and internationally.
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The company offers copper, gold, zinc concentrate, lead concentrate, silver, lithium, iron concentrate, tungsten concentrate, and molybdenum concentrate; smelted copper, smelted and processed gold and silver, smelted zinc ingots, sulfuric acid, and battery -grade lithium carbonate; and copper pipes, copper plates and strips, potassium gold cyanide, and other products.
It is also involved in mineral resource exploration; gold and copper mining and beneficiation; gold and copper smelting ; sales of jewelry and mineral products; investment in the mining industry; foreign trade; open-pit mining of copper and gold mines and underground mining of copper mines; manufacturing of special equipment for environmental protection; air pollution control; water pollution control; solid waste treatment; waste incineration power generation and hazardous waste disposal; and other services.
The company holds 100% interest in the Shapinggou Molybdenum mine in Jinzhai County, Anhui Province. The company was formerly known as Fujian Zijin Mining Industry Company Limited and changed its name to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited in June 2004.
Zijin Mining Group Company Limited was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Longyan, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899) currently trades at ¥28.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥15.62, 45.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥50.49 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥28.79 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.40, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥8.32 (bear) to ¥22.97 (bull), the price of ¥28.79 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A reported revenue of 349B CNY in FY2025 versus 225B CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was 51.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +34.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 765B CNY (≈ $115B) Large · P/E ratio 11.7 · P/S ratio 2.04 · EPS (TTM) ¥2.48 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 18.0% · Return on equity 36.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 81 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −46%, 601899 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥8.32Fair Value ¥15.62Bull¥22.97
Price ¥28.79 · Upside -45.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥1.36 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.7% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+49.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+46.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.50.1% vs 36.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 22%
2025 sits 144% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.4% a year for the price and +9.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The business draws strength from first-half profit growth via higher gold and lithium output, yet its main weakness remains thin evidence of a durable moat as a commodity producer facing overseas hurdles.
Main risk: Operational disruptions at overseas sites such as the halted Bisha mine due to fuel shortages threaten production volumes and execution reliability across the portfolio.
Zijin has posted strong first-half profit growth driven by higher gold output and a surge in lithium production. Yet processing has halted at its Bisha copper-zinc mine in Eritrea due to fuel shortages, adding to questions around execution at overseas sites amid the ongoing Colombia security dispute. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Does the expansion into multiple metals deliver reliable results despite these operational and legal hurdles?
Compare Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 208 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−45.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)36.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)18.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)32.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.58× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.7× · Pricier than median
P/B4.16× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.04× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow16.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA6.6× · Pricier than median
PEG1.68× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)39· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)71· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)56· sector 27
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601899
Frequently asked questions
Is Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥15.62 versus a price of ¥28.79, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601899?
Our model-based fair value for Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A is ¥15.62 (as of Oct 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥28.79.
What is the quality score of 601899?
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥15.62 (as of Oct 21, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥8.32, optimistic scenario ¥22.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥15.62, about −46% upside versus a price of ¥28.79 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥8.32, optimistic scenario ¥22.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 376B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 21, 2026).
Does Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A pay a dividend?
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A currently shows a dividend yield of 2.78% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 21, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A would have to grow free cash flow by +8.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.2 % per year. As of Oct 21, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601899 use?
Our models discount Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A that is +8.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A grew +15.2 % a year. The price currently implies +8.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (+8.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.97 %: that much free cash flow Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A it is ¥15.62 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026), against a price of ¥28.79. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 21, 2026, 601899 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥28.79, fair value ¥15.62, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601899?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥28.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥15.62). For Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A the two are ¥13.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A worth?
The market values Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A at about 765B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 21, 2026). Per share that is ¥28.79; our models calculate a fair value of ¥15.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601899?
Our models span a range for Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A: cautious scenario ¥8.32, base ¥15.62, optimistic ¥22.97 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026, price ¥28.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601899?
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7 (as of Oct 21, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥15.62 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 18.3. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 4.2, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
What is the PEG ratio of 601899?
The PEG ratio of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A is 1.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 21, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (as of Oct 21, 2026): return on equity 36.6%, debt of 0.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601899 from its 52-week high?
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A trades at ¥28.79, about 34% below its 52-week high of ¥43.45 and 15% above the low of ¥25.10 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥15.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, AngloGold Ashanti plc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 21, 2026: price ¥28.79, calculated fair value ¥15.62 (−46%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601899 calculated?
We run Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥15.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was ¥28.79. Our model-based fair value is ¥15.62, about −46% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥22.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (¥8.32 to ¥22.97). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899) come from?
Earnings per share at Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A grew +34.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.4 %, EBIT margin +18.3 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A
How large is the market capitalisation of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
The market capitalisation of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A is 765B CNY (≈ $115B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A is 2.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
Earnings per share at Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A are ¥2.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
The dividend yield of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A is 2.8% (payout 32.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
The net margin of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A is 18.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A is 36.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A is 11.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
The operating margin of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A is 32.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
Revenue at Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A is growing +7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899)?
Earnings per share at Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A are growing +44.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A (601899) carry?
The net debt of Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd Class A is 104B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 21, 2026