Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Newmont Goldcorp Corp stock $128, price $114, upside +12.6%, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.46 – $134.86 · fair‑value band $96.37 – $160.61 · the $114.11 price screens below the $128.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 24, 2026.
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Newmont Corporation operates as a gold producer. It also explores for copper, silver, lead, zinc, and other metals. It has operations and/or assets in the United States, Papua New Guinea, Australia, Ghana, Suriname, Argentina, Dominican Republic, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Mexico, and Canada.
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The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Stock analysis
Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM) currently trades at $114.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $128.49, implying the stock looks roughly 11.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $149.16 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the $114.11 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $19.84, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $96.37 (bear) to $160.61 (bull), the price of $114.11 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Newmont Goldcorp Corp reported revenue of $22.1B in FY2025 versus $12.2B in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was $7.1B in FY2025, compounding +57.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $122B Large · P/E ratio 14.4 · P/S ratio 4.73 · EPS (TTM) $7.93 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 33.4% · Return on equity 25.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 84 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at 13%, NEM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$96.37Fair Value $128.49Bull$160.61
Price $114.11 · Upside +12.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.61 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+62.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+61.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.7% vs 24.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 47%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.6% a year for the price and +6.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Record free cash flow and shareholder returns support operations, yet thin evidence of a durable moat and commodity price dependence limit long-term advantage.
Main risk: Commodity price dependence poses the biggest risk to margins and free cash flow as a gold producer with limited pricing power.
Newmont generates record free cash flow in a trough production year while returning billions through dividends and buybacks and advancing multiple growth projects. The company sold a non-core Nevada asset in early October yet keeps investing in its core portfolio. Will cost discipline and shareholder returns sustain the business more effectively than the expected output recovery from those projects?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 208 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+12.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)25.9% · Above median
Return on assets12.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)33.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)51.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $128.49 versus a price of $114.11, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NEM?
Our model-based fair value for Newmont Goldcorp Corp is $128.49 (as of Oct 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $114.11.
What is the quality score of NEM?
Newmont Goldcorp Corp has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $128.49 (as of Oct 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $96.37, optimistic scenario $160.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Newmont Goldcorp Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $128.49, about +13% upside versus a price of $114.11 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $96.37, optimistic scenario $160.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
Newmont Goldcorp Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $25.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 24, 2026).
Does Newmont Goldcorp Corp pay a dividend?
Newmont Goldcorp Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 0.90% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Newmont Goldcorp Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +1.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.1 % per year. As of Oct 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NEM use?
Our models discount Newmont Goldcorp Corp at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Newmont Goldcorp Corp that is +1.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Newmont Goldcorp Corp grew +14.1 % a year. The price currently implies +1.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Newmont Goldcorp Corp (+1.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.99 %: that much free cash flow Newmont Goldcorp Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Newmont Goldcorp Corp it is $128.49 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026), against a price of $114.11. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Newmont Goldcorp Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 24, 2026, NEM trades below its calculated fair value: price $114.11, fair value $128.49, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NEM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($114.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($128.49). For Newmont Goldcorp Corp the two are $14.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Newmont Goldcorp Corp worth?
The market values Newmont Goldcorp Corp at about $122B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 24, 2026). Per share that is $114.11; our models calculate a fair value of $128.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NEM?
Our models span a range for Newmont Goldcorp Corp: cautious scenario $96.37, base $128.49, optimistic $160.61 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026, price $114.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NEM?
Newmont Goldcorp Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.4 (as of Oct 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $128.49 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 8.8 (reported for FY2025: 17.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 32.3. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 3.6, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
What is the PEG ratio of NEM?
The PEG ratio of Newmont Goldcorp Corp is 2.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Newmont Goldcorp Corp (as of Oct 24, 2026): return on equity 25.9%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NEM from its 52-week high?
Newmont Goldcorp Corp trades at $114.11, about 15% below its 52-week high of $134.86 and 46% above the low of $77.90 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $128.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Newmont Goldcorp Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, Franco-Nevada Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Newmont Goldcorp Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 24, 2026: price $114.11, calculated fair value $128.49 (+13%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NEM calculated?
We run Newmont Goldcorp Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $128.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Newmont Goldcorp Corp currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $114.11. Our model-based fair value is $128.49, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Newmont Goldcorp Corp right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM) come from?
Earnings per share at Newmont Goldcorp Corp grew +20.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.1 %, EBIT margin +15.3 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Newmont Goldcorp Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
The market capitalisation of Newmont Goldcorp Corp is $122B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Newmont Goldcorp Corp is 4.73 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
Earnings per share at Newmont Goldcorp Corp are $7.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
The dividend yield of Newmont Goldcorp Corp is 0.9% (payout 6.4%, on adjusted earnings, reported 13.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
The net margin of Newmont Goldcorp Corp is 33.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Newmont Goldcorp Corp is 25.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Newmont Goldcorp Corp is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
The operating margin of Newmont Goldcorp Corp is 51.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
Revenue at Newmont Goldcorp Corp is growing +15.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)?
Earnings per share at Newmont Goldcorp Corp are growing +11.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM) hold?
Newmont Goldcorp Corp holds more cash than debt, $1.9B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 24, 2026