Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$21.4B (≈ $15.4B) · ISIN AU000000EVN4
What is Evolution Mining Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 95% above our fair value of A$7.75.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +31.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$14.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (A$5.38 to A$14.01). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.69 – A$17.47 · fair‑value band A$5.38 – A$14.01 · the A$15.11 price screens above the A$7.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN) currently trades at A$15.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$7.75, implying the stock looks roughly 95.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$19.64 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$15.11 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$1.28, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Evolution Mining Ltd generated revenue of A$5.1B at a net margin of 26.0%. Revenue grew 37.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.4%. Net debt stands at A$1.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$5.38 (bear case) to A$14.01 (bull case); at A$15.11, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 123% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −49%, EVN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.3300 per share, which is 4.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$19.64) versus Dividend Discount (A$1.28). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Evolution Mining Limited engages in the exploration, mine development and operation, and sale of gold and gold-copper concentrates in Australia and Canada. It also explores for copper and silver deposits. The company was formerly known as Catalpa Resources Limited and changed its name to Evolution Mining Limited in November 2011.
Full company description
Evolution Mining Limited engages in the exploration, mine development and operation, and sale of gold and gold-copper concentrates in Australia and Canada. It also explores for copper and silver deposits. The company was formerly known as Catalpa Resources Limited and changed its name to Evolution Mining Limited in November 2011. Evolution Mining Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Evolution Mining Ltd reported revenue of A$4.4B in FY2025 versus A$1.9B in FY2021, a compound +23.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$926M in FY2025, compounding +28.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +18.5 % · buybacks/dilution −6.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
EVN screens 95% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Arizona Gold & Silver secures C$12M strategic investment from Evolution Mining
- Arizona Gold & Silver lands C$12 million investment from Evolution Mining
- Evolution Mining to acquire Carnaby Resources for $149m
Peer Group
Gold · 245 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $128.00 | $112.82 | −12% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥32.21 | ¥39.42 | +22% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$268.76 | C$213.40 | −21% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $41.23 | $50.66 | +23% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $271.31 | $96.63 | −64% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$201.40 | C$56.05 | −72% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $97.92 | $88.63 | −9% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $32.51 | $34.62 | +6% |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $262.85 | $93.56 | −64% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$23.19 | A$15.98 | −31% |
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