Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Evolution Mining Ltd stock A$6.31, price A$11.31, upside -44.2%, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.69 – A$17.47 · fair‑value band A$3.50 – A$10.76 · the A$11.31 price screens above the A$6.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Evolution Mining Limited engages in the exploration, mine development and operation, and sale of gold and gold-copper concentrates in Australia and Canada. It also explores for copper and silver deposits.
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The company was formerly known as Catalpa Resources Limited and changed its name to Evolution Mining Limited in November 2011. Evolution Mining Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN) currently trades at A$11.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$6.31, 44.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$31.06 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$11.31 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.87, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$3.50 (bear) to A$10.76 (bull), the price of A$11.31 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Evolution Mining Ltd reported revenue of A$5.6B in FY2026 versus A$2.1B in FY2022, a compound +28.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.5B in FY2026, compounding +46.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$23.0B (≈ $16.1B) Large · P/E ratio 15.9 · P/S ratio 4.14 · EPS (TTM) A$0.7100 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 26.5% · Return on equity 27.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 85 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −44%, EVN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$3.50Fair Value A$6.31BullA$10.76
Price A$11.31 · Upside -44.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.1208 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+27.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.4% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+75.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+40.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+37.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.32.6% vs 18.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 43%
2026 sits 231% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.4% a year for the price and +5.5% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Evolution Mining gains from copper project advances that add a second growth driver alongside gold, yet stays constrained by thin moat signals and dominant commodity exposure typical of gold miners.
Main risk: Integration of new copper assets could introduce execution risks that weigh on margins and operational performance at existing gold mines.
Evolution Mining is advancing copper projects alongside its gold mines, with a pending acquisition set to add assets near existing operations and boost equivalent output. Copper already accounts for a meaningful share of revenue and could provide a second growth driver. Will integration of these assets strengthen margins more than it introduces new execution risks?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 208 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−44.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets14.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)26.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)42.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.30× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)15.9× · Pricier than median
P/B3.94× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.14× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow16.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA7.5× · Pricier than median
PEG0.42× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)96· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)85· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)58· sector 27
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$6.31 versus a price of A$11.31, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EVN?
Our model-based fair value for Evolution Mining Ltd is A$6.31 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$11.31.
What is the quality score of EVN?
Evolution Mining Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$6.31 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$3.50, optimistic scenario A$10.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Evolution Mining Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$6.31, about −44% upside versus a price of A$11.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$3.50, optimistic scenario A$10.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
Evolution Mining Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$5.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Evolution Mining Ltd pay a dividend?
Evolution Mining Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.92% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Evolution Mining Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +7.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.4 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EVN use?
Our models discount Evolution Mining Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.62, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Evolution Mining Ltd that is +7.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Evolution Mining Ltd grew +24.4 % a year. The price currently implies +7.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Evolution Mining Ltd (+7.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.23 %: that much free cash flow Evolution Mining Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Evolution Mining Ltd it is A$6.31 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of A$11.31. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Evolution Mining Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, EVN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$11.31, fair value A$6.31, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EVN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$11.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$6.31). For Evolution Mining Ltd the two are A$5.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Evolution Mining Ltd worth?
The market values Evolution Mining Ltd at about A$23.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is A$11.31; our models calculate a fair value of A$6.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EVN?
Our models span a range for Evolution Mining Ltd: cautious scenario A$3.50, base A$6.31, optimistic A$10.76 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price A$11.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EVN?
Evolution Mining Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.9 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$6.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 3.9, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
What is the PEG ratio of EVN?
The PEG ratio of Evolution Mining Ltd is 0.42 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Evolution Mining Ltd (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 27.4%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EVN from its 52-week high?
Evolution Mining Ltd trades at A$11.31, about 35% below its 52-week high of A$17.47 and 12% above the low of A$10.11 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$6.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Evolution Mining Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Evolution Mining Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price A$11.31, calculated fair value A$6.31 (−44%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EVN calculated?
We run Evolution Mining Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$6.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Evolution Mining Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was A$11.31. Our model-based fair value is A$6.31, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Evolution Mining Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$10.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (A$3.50 to A$10.76). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN) come from?
Earnings per share at Evolution Mining Ltd grew +15.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.5 %, EBIT margin +7.6 %, tax rate −3.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Evolution Mining Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
The market capitalisation of Evolution Mining Ltd is A$23.0B (≈ $16.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Evolution Mining Ltd is 4.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
Earnings per share at Evolution Mining Ltd are A$0.7100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
The dividend yield of Evolution Mining Ltd is 2.9% (payout 46.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
The net margin of Evolution Mining Ltd is 26.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Evolution Mining Ltd is 27.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Evolution Mining Ltd is 11.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
The operating margin of Evolution Mining Ltd is 42.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
Revenue at Evolution Mining Ltd is growing +19.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)?
Earnings per share at Evolution Mining Ltd are growing +24.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN) carry?
The net debt of Evolution Mining Ltd is A$68.9M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026