Rumo S.A (RAIL3) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · BR · Market cap R$26.1B (≈ $5.1B) · ISIN BRRAILACNOR9
What is Rumo S.A really worth?
A solid business, but trading 54% above our fair value of R$9.59.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 18, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price +4.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$11.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$12.33 – R$22.81 · fair‑value band R$7.19 – R$11.98 · the R$14.81 price screens above the R$9.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
Analysis
Rumo S.A (RAIL3) currently trades at R$14.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$9.59, implying the stock looks roughly 54.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of R$13.06 per share, and 6 of the 16 models we run sit above the R$14.81 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$5.00, and 10 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Rumo S.A generated revenue of R$14.2B at a net margin of 7.3%. Revenue grew 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. Net debt stands at R$24.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$7.19 (bear case) to R$11.98 (bull case); at R$14.81, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −35%, RAIL3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly R$0.3056 per share, which is 3.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (R$13.06) versus Asset-Based (R$5.00). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Rumo S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the rail logistics operation. The company operates through North Operations, South Operations, and Container Operations segments. The North Operations segment is involved in the railway, highway, and transshipment operations.
Full company description
Rumo S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the rail logistics operation. The company operates through North Operations, South Operations, and Container Operations segments. The North Operations segment is involved in the railway, highway, and transshipment operations. The South Operations segment comprises of rail and transhipment operations in the area of Rumo Malha Sul and Rumo Malha Oeste concessions. The Container Operations segment engages in the rail and road transport, and container logistics and operations. It offers logistics services primarily for exporting commodities, including integrated solution for transportation, movement, storage, and shipment from the production centers to the main ports in the south and southeast of Brazil. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Curitiba, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Rumo S.A reported revenue of R$13.8B in FY2025 versus R$7.4B in FY2021, a compound +16.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$847M in FY2025, compounding +54.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
RAIL3 screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Rumo SA (BSP:RAIL3) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Shift to Value Creation Amid ...
- Rumo SA (BSP:RAIL3) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Transported Volume and Strategic ...
- Rumo SA (BSP:RAIL3) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Transport Volumes and Strategic ...
- Rumo SA (BSP:RAIL3) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic ...
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $307.41 | $141.29 | −54% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $48.99 | $12.62 | −74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $94.12 | $34.33 | −64% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNR | C$175.06 | C$92.68 | −47% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $332.96 | $114.36 | −66% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $297.57 | $144.80 | −51% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.87 | ¥5.65 | +16% |
| MTR Corporation 0066 | HK$32.04 | HK$17.85 | −44% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.98 | ¥9.53 | +59% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.72 | ¥6.22 | +32% |
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