One Gas Inc (OGS) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $5.0B · ISIN US68235P1084
What is One Gas Inc really worth?
One Gas Inc
OGS · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 31% above our fair value of $61.50.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Share price +4.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The price sits above our optimistic bull case: the favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $52.60 – $89.89 · fair‑value band $45.72 – $79.95 · the $80.54 price screens above the $61.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
Analysis
One Gas Inc (OGS) currently trades at $80.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $61.50, implying the stock looks roughly 31.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $71.57 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the $80.54 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $30.12, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, One Gas Inc generated revenue of $2.3B at a net margin of 11.8%. Revenue declined 11.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.2%. Net debt stands at $3.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $45.72 (bear case) to $79.95 (bull case); at $80.54, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −24%, OGS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.18 per share, which is 1.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($71.57) versus Earnings-Based ($30.12). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
ONE Gas, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company in the United States. The company offers natural gas distribution services. As of December 31, 2025, it owned 43,200 miles of distribution pipelines and 2,200 miles of transmission pipelines.
Full company description
ONE Gas, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company in the United States. The company offers natural gas distribution services. As of December 31, 2025, it owned 43,200 miles of distribution pipelines and 2,200 miles of transmission pipelines. The company serves approximately 2.3 million residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and wholesale customers in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. ONE Gas, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
One Gas Inc reported revenue of $2.4B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was $264M in FY2025, compounding +6.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.1 % · buybacks/dilution −0.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
OGS screens 31% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ONE Gas (OGS) Could Be a Great Choice
- ONE Gas (OGS) On Rising Gas Demand And Infrastructure Spending With Valuation In Focus
- Improved Infrastructure-Driven Earnings Outlook Might Change The Case For Investing In ONE Gas (OGS)
- OGS vs. SWX: Which Utility Stock Has Greater Investment Potential?
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 105 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €29.60 | €31.58 | +7% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $166.65 | $85.67 | −49% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $40.96 | $28.59 | −30% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €47.45 | €48.32 | +2% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.31 | HK$4.79 | −34% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹171.10 | ₹130.21 | −24% |
| Italgas S.p.A IG | €8.67 | €8.63 | −1% |
| Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL | ₹654.05 | ₹101.36 | −85% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥17.51 | ¥25.71 | +47% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $38.01 | $26.72 | −30% |
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