Newmont Corporation (NEMCL) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $120B
What is Newmont Corporation really worth?
Newmont Corporation
NEMCL · US
A solid business, but trading 13% above our fair value of $112.82.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated today
Share price +14.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($84.62 to $228.03). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
29‑month range $32.53 – $128.00 · fair‑value band $84.62 – $228.03 · the $128.00 price screens above the $112.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Newmont Corporation (NEMCL) currently trades at $128.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $112.82, implying the stock looks roughly 13.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $184.80 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the $128.00 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $21.36, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Newmont Corporation generated revenue of $25.0B at a net margin of 33.9%. Revenue grew 45.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.8%. Net debt stands at $4.9B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $84.62 (bear case) to $228.03 (bull case); at $128.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 250% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −12%, NEMCL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.53 per share, which is 4.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($184.80) versus Asset-Based ($21.36). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Newmont Corporation operates as a gold producer. It also explores for copper, silver, lead, zinc, and other metals. It has operations and/or assets in the United States, Papua New Guinea, Australia, Ghana, Suriname, Argentina, Dominican Republic, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Mexico, and Canada.
Full company description
Newmont Corporation operates as a gold producer. It also explores for copper, silver, lead, zinc, and other metals. It has operations and/or assets in the United States, Papua New Guinea, Australia, Ghana, Suriname, Argentina, Dominican Republic, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Mexico, and Canada. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Newmont Corporation reported revenue of $22.7B in FY2025 versus $12.2B in FY2021, a compound +16.7%/yr. Reported net income was $7.1B in FY2025, compounding +57.0%/yr from FY2021.
NEMCL screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Zijin Mining Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Our Newmont Stock Pick Still Glitters After 66% Gains. Stay Bullish.
- Newmont (NEM) Could Be 19% Undervalued Following Its New Nevada Gold Deals
Peer Group
Gold · 245 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥32.21 | ¥39.42 | +22% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$268.76 | C$213.40 | −21% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $41.23 | $50.66 | +23% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $271.31 | $96.63 | −64% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$201.40 | C$56.05 | −72% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $97.92 | $88.63 | −9% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $32.51 | $34.62 | +6% |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $262.85 | $93.56 | −64% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$23.19 | A$15.98 | −31% |
| Lundin Gold Inc LUG | kr 708.00 | kr 504.76 | −29% |
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