Metcash Ltd (MTS) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · AU · Market cap A$3.2B (≈ $2.3B) · ISIN AU000000MTS0
What is Metcash Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, trading 44% below our fair value of A$5.33.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price −3.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$3.47). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (A$3.47 to A$6.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.57 – A$4.00 · fair‑value band A$3.47 – A$6.66 · the A$2.98 price screens below the A$5.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Metcash Ltd (MTS) currently trades at A$2.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$5.33, implying the stock looks roughly 44.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$5.20 per share, and 20 of the 23 models we run sit above the A$2.98 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.04, and 3 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Metcash Ltd generated revenue of A$17.3B at a net margin of 1.6%. Revenue grew 0.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.5%. Net debt stands at A$1.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$3.47 (bear case) to A$6.66 (bull case); at A$2.98, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 79%, MTS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 4 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.0281 per share, which is 0.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$5.20) versus Asset-Based (A$1.04). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Metcash Limited operates as a wholesale distribution and marketing company in Australia. It operates through Food, Liquor, and Hardware segments. The Food segment distributes a range of products and services to independent supermarket, convenience retail outlets, and food service customers.
Full company description
Metcash Limited operates as a wholesale distribution and marketing company in Australia. It operates through Food, Liquor, and Hardware segments. The Food segment distributes a range of products and services to independent supermarket, convenience retail outlets, and food service customers. The Liquor segment engages in the distribution of liquor products to independent retail outlets and hotels. The Hardware segment distributes hardware products to independent retail outlets; and operates company owned retail stores. It sells its products under the IGA, Foodland, Mitre 10, Home Hardware, Total Tools, Cellarbrations, IGA Liquor, and the Bottle-O brand names. Metcash Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Macquarie Park, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Metcash Ltd reported revenue of A$17.4B in FY2026 versus A$15.2B in FY2022, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$279M in FY2026, compounding +3.3%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +2.4 % · buybacks/dilution −1.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Food Distribution · 81 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sysco Corporation SYY | $81.94 | $59.83 | −27% |
| US Foods Holding USFD | $107.78 | $53.53 | −50% |
| Performance Food Group PFGC | $107.25 | $37.94 | −65% |
| Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT | €18.00 | €21.59 | +20% |
| CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT | 14.80 THB | 17.42 THB | +18% |
| The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF | $111.07 | $37.27 | −66% |
| Olam Group VC2 | 1.04 SGD | 2.12 SGD | +104% |
| United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI | $43.62 | $6.00 | −86% |
| The Andersons, Inc ANDE | $64.56 | $47.78 | −26% |
| Zhejiang Dongri Limited 600113 | ¥31.47 | ¥6.75 | −79% |
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