Metcash Ltd (MTS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Metcash Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
Consumer Defensive · AU · Market cap A$3.1B (≈ $2.3B) · ISIN AU000000MTS0
At a glance
MLMetcash LtdMTS · AU
PriceA$2.85
Fair ValueA$5.33
Upside+87.0%
Quality47/100
Below-average quality, trading 47% below our fair value of A$5.33.
As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Metcash Ltd is A$5.33 per share against a price of A$2.85, so the fair value sits 87% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +3.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.6% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·6.32% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
!Narrow moat 41/100
!Weak on future: 2 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange A$3.47 to A$6.66
Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price −9.2% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$3.47). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
A fairly wide model range (A$3.47 to A$6.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.57 – A$4.00 · fair‑value band A$3.47 – A$6.66 · the A$2.85 price screens below the A$5.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
Metcash Ltd (MTS) currently trades at A$2.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$5.33, implying the stock looks roughly 46.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$5.20 per share, and 20 of the 23 models we run sit above the A$2.85 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.04, and 3 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Metcash Ltd generated revenue of A$17.3B at a net margin of 1.6%. Revenue grew 0.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.5%. Net debt stands at A$1.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026
Scenario range: A$3.47 (bear) to A$6.66 (bull), the price of A$2.85 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 87%, MTS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0292 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio11.4
P/S ratio0.18P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)A$0.2500price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.4
Dividend yield6.3%payout 72.0%
Net margin1.6%FY2026
Return on equity16.7%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)7.8%avg 5y
Operating margin2.8%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)A$17.4BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+0.3%3y avg +3.2%
EPS growth (YoY)−3.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flowA$383MFY2026
Net debtA$1.8BFY2026 · ≈ 4.8 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality47/100
Of which business quality 48
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Profitability48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance56
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Metcash Limited operates as a wholesale distribution and marketing company in Australia. It operates through Food, Liquor, and Hardware segments. The Food segment distributes a range of products and services to independent supermarket, convenience retail outlets, and food service customers.
Full company description
Metcash Limited operates as a wholesale distribution and marketing company in Australia. It operates through Food, Liquor, and Hardware segments. The Food segment distributes a range of products and services to independent supermarket, convenience retail outlets, and food service customers. The Liquor segment engages in the distribution of liquor products to independent retail outlets and hotels. The Hardware segment distributes hardware products to independent retail outlets; and operates company owned retail stores. It sells its products under the IGA, Foodland, Mitre 10, Home Hardware, Total Tools, Cellarbrations, IGA Liquor, and the Bottle-O brand names. Metcash Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Macquarie Park, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Metcash Ltd reported revenue of A$17.4B in FY2026 versus A$15.2B in FY2022, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$279M in FY2026, compounding +3.3%/yr from FY2022.
Growth Quality 58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
A$17.4B
Latest YoY
+0.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (32Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+7.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+1.0%
Dividend yield6.3%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 1.0% vs 10Y 2.1%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2.5% (2021) → 2.7% (2026) · steady
Worst earnings drop286% (2015) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in AUD
Revenue+3.4%/yr
FY22A$15.2B
FY23A$15.8B
FY24A$15.9B
FY25A$17.3B
FY26A$17.4B
Net income+3.3%/yr
FY22A$245M
FY23A$259M
FY24A$257M
FY25A$283M
FY26A$279M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2016-2026)+2.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share+0.9 %
of which total revenue +2.4 % · buybacks/dilution −1.4 %
EBIT margin+9.3 %
Tax rate−0.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)−6.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Metcash Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MTS
Peer Group
Food Distribution · 78 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+79% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Above median
Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)11.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.36× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.13× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF6.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA4.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.63× · Pricier than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Metcash Ltd deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years-4.7 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+3.9 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.9 %
FCF yield on price12.16 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.3 %
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 23
FUTURE2· sector 12
PAST67· sector 32
HEALTH88· sector 94
DIVIDEND100· sector 58
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).
As of Sep 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$5.33 versus a price of A$2.85, about +87% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MTS?
Our model-based fair value for Metcash Ltd is A$5.33 (as of Sep 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.85.
What is the quality score of MTS?
Metcash Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Metcash Ltd (MTS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$5.33 (as of Sep 6, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$3.47, optimistic scenario A$6.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Metcash Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$5.33, about +87% upside versus a price of A$2.85 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$3.47, optimistic scenario A$6.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Metcash Ltd (MTS)?
Metcash Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$17.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MTS?
The net profit margin of Metcash Ltd is about 1.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Metcash Ltd pay a dividend?
Metcash Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.32% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Metcash Ltd (MTS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Metcash Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -4.7 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.3 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.9 % per year. As of Sep 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTS use?
Our models discount Metcash Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Metcash Ltd (MTS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Metcash Ltd it is A$5.33 per share (as of Sep 6, 2026), against a price of A$2.85. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Metcash Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 6, 2026, MTS trades below its calculated fair value: price A$2.85, fair value A$5.33, a gap of about +87% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$5.33). For Metcash Ltd the two are A$2.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Metcash Ltd worth?
The market values Metcash Ltd at about A$3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 6, 2026). Per share that is A$2.85; our models calculate a fair value of A$5.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTS?
Our models span a range for Metcash Ltd: cautious scenario A$3.47, base A$5.33, optimistic A$6.66 per share (as of Sep 6, 2026, price A$2.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTS?
Metcash Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4 (as of Sep 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$5.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 4.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MTS?
The PEG ratio of Metcash Ltd is 1.63 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Metcash Ltd (MTS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Metcash Ltd (as of Sep 6, 2026): return on equity 16.7%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTS from its 52-week high?
Metcash Ltd trades at A$2.85, about 31% below its 52-week high of A$4.15 and 8% above the low of A$2.63 (as of Sep 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$5.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Metcash Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding, Performance Food Group, Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Metcash Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 6, 2026: price A$2.85, calculated fair value A$5.33 (+87%), Quality Score 47/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTS calculated?
We run Metcash Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$5.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Metcash Ltd currently trades 87 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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