United Natural Foods Inc (UNFI) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $2.9B · ISIN US9111631035
What is United Natural Foods Inc really worth?
United Natural Foods Inc
UNFI · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 627% above our fair value of $6.00.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated today
Share price −10.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($6.00 to $21.57). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.82 – $55.61 · fair‑value band $6.00 – $21.57 · the $43.62 price screens above the $6.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
United Natural Foods Inc (UNFI) currently trades at $43.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.00, implying the stock looks roughly 626.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $57.77 per share, and 4 of the 11 models we run sit above the $43.62 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.00, and 7 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, United Natural Foods Inc generated revenue of $31.5B at a net margin of −0.3%. Revenue declined 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −4.9%. Net debt stands at $3.4B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.00 (bear case) to $21.57 (bull case); at $43.62, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 110% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −86%, UNFI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($57.77) versus Dividend Discount ($3.00). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
United Natural Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of natural, organic, specialty, produce, and conventional grocery and non-food products in the United States and Canada. It operates in three segments: Natural, Wholesale, and Retail.
Full company description
United Natural Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of natural, organic, specialty, produce, and conventional grocery and non-food products in the United States and Canada. It operates in three segments: Natural, Wholesale, and Retail. The company distributes grocery and general merchandise, perishables, frozen food, wellness and personal care items, bulk and foodservice, home, health and beauty care, pharmacy, pet food, produce, meat, dairy, and organic/non-GMO products under the ESSENTIAL EVERYDAY, SHOPPERS VALUE, WILD HARVEST, Field Day, STONE RIDGE CREAMERY, EQUALINE, CULINARY CIRCLE, and WOODSTOCK brands. It also engages in the manufacture of natural and organic snack food; importing, roasting, packaging, and distributing of nuts, dried fruit, seeds, trail mixes, granola, natural and organic snack items, and confections under the Woodstock Farms Manufacturing brand; and operation of grocery and liquor stores under the Cub Foods and Shoppers brands. In addition, the company provides shelf and planogram management, retail store support, pricing strategy, shelf tags, electronic payments and coupon processing, store layout and design, equipment sourcing and procurement, point-of-sale hardware and software, network and data hosting solutions, consumer convenience services, automation tools, sustainability services, and administrative back-office solutions; consumer and trade marketing programs; and programs to support suppliers in understanding its markets. Further, it offers web and digital marketing services, such as websites, digital coupon and loyalty programs, mobile applications, e-commerce, and circular programs; and various supply chain, digital, and professional services. It serves grocery chains, retailers, and wholesale customers. United Natural Foods, Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
United Natural Foods Inc reported revenue of $31.8B in FY2025 versus $27.0B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$118M in FY2025.
UNFI screens 627% overvalued. Compare with Sysco Corporation →
Peer Group
Food Distribution · 81 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sysco Corporation SYY | $81.94 | $59.83 | −27% |
| US Foods Holding USFD | $107.78 | $53.53 | −50% |
| Performance Food Group PFGC | $107.25 | $37.94 | −65% |
| Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT | €18.00 | €21.59 | +20% |
| CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT | 14.80 THB | 17.42 THB | +18% |
| The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF | $111.07 | $37.27 | −66% |
| Olam Group VC2 | 1.04 SGD | 2.12 SGD | +104% |
| The Andersons, Inc ANDE | $64.56 | $47.78 | −26% |
| Zhejiang Dongri Limited 600113 | ¥31.47 | ¥6.75 | −79% |
| Dong Suh Companies Inc 026960 | 25,450 KRW | 11,287 KRW | −56% |
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