The Chefs Warehouse Inc (CHEF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $3.9B · ISIN US1630861011
What is The Chefs Warehouse Inc really worth?
The Chefs Warehouse Inc
CHEF · US
A solid business, but trading 206% above our fair value of $37.27.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +3.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($46.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($13.21 to $46.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.83 – $115.52 · fair‑value band $13.21 – $46.58 · the $114.21 price screens above the $37.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
The Chefs Warehouse Inc (CHEF) currently trades at $114.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.27, implying the stock looks roughly 206.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $45.06 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $114.21 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.93, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, The Chefs Warehouse Inc generated revenue of $4.3B at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue grew 11.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.8%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.21 (bear case) to $46.58 (bull case); at $114.21, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 115% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −67%, CHEF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.24 per share, which is 3.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($45.06) versus Dividend Discount ($0.7900). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, distributes specialty food and center-of-the-plate products in the United States, the Middle East, and Canada.
Full company description
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, distributes specialty food and center-of-the-plate products in the United States, the Middle East, and Canada. It offers specialty food products, such as artisan charcuterie, specialty cheeses, unique oils and vinegars, truffles, caviar, chocolate, and pastry products and center-of-the-plate products that includes custom cut beef, seafood, and hormone-free poultry, as well as produce and broadline food products comprising cooking oils, butter, eggs, milk, and flour. The company serves menu-driven independent restaurants, fine dining establishments, country clubs, hotels, caterers, culinary schools, bakeries, patisseries, chocolatiers, cruise lines, casinos, and specialty food stores. It markets its center-of-the-plate products directly to consumers through a mail and e-commerce platform. The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Ridgefield, Connecticut.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Chefs Warehouse Inc reported revenue of $4.1B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +24.2%/yr. Reported net income was $72.4M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +15.6 % · buybacks/dilution −6.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CHEF screens 206% overvalued. Compare with Sysco Corporation →
Peer Group
Food Distribution · 81 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sysco Corporation SYY | $81.94 | $59.83 | −27% |
| US Foods Holding USFD | $107.78 | $53.53 | −50% |
| Performance Food Group PFGC | $107.25 | $37.94 | −65% |
| Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT | €18.00 | €21.59 | +20% |
| CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT | 14.80 THB | 17.42 THB | +18% |
| Olam Group VC2 | 1.04 SGD | 2.12 SGD | +104% |
| United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI | $43.62 | $6.00 | −86% |
| The Andersons, Inc ANDE | $64.56 | $47.78 | −26% |
| Zhejiang Dongri Limited 600113 | ¥31.47 | ¥6.75 | −79% |
| Dong Suh Companies Inc 026960 | 25,450 KRW | 11,287 KRW | −56% |
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