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CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · TH · Market cap 155B THB (≈ $4.7B)

What is CP Axtra Public Company Limited really worth?

CA CP Axtra Public Company Limited CPAXT · BK
Price14.80 THB
Fair Value17.42 THB
Upside+17.7%
Quality51/100

A solid business, trading 15% below our fair value of 17.42 THB.

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Strengths

Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +3.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.8% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
!Narrow moat 30/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 24 out of 100
!Weak on past: 12 out of 100

For context

·4.80% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range 11.44 THB – 19.83 THB

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 17.04 THB to 17.42 THB (+2.2%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price −1.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
  • The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
  • Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (23 months)

33.26 THB 13.53 THB Fair Value 17.42 THB Oct 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

23‑month range 13.53 THB – 33.26 THB · fair‑value band 11.44 THB – 19.83 THB · the 14.80 THB price screens below the 17.42 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT) currently trades at 14.80 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 17.42 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 15.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 19.24 THB per share, and 11 of the 25 models we run sit above the 14.80 THB price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 2.61 THB, and 14 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, CP Axtra Public Company Limited generated revenue of 524B THB at a net margin of 1.8%. Revenue grew 4.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. Net debt stands at 98.3B THB. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 11.44 THB (bear case) to 19.83 THB (bull case); at 14.80 THB, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at 18%, CPAXT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 0.1286 THB per share, which is 0.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 3.03 THB 8.61 THB 74
Residual Income 21.07 THB 20.81 THB 18.04 THB 73
Growth DCF 2.61 THB 7.11 THB 72
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 3.03 THB 8.61 THB 74
Owner Earnings 5.98 THB 13.53 THB 25.46 THB 69
5Y Revenue Exit 5.01 THB 13.82 THB 25.43 THB 65
5Y EBITDA Exit 14.68 THB 32.36 THB 53.70 THB 69
5Y P/E Exit 4.09 THB 12.04 THB 20.64 THB 64
10Y Revenue Exit 2.53 THB 10.16 THB 21.07 THB 58
10Y EBITDA Exit 9.22 THB 23.21 THB 43.17 THB 61
10Y P/E Exit 2.40 THB 8.90 THB 17.32 THB 56
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 6.10 THB 21.39 THB 28.77 THB 62
Lynch FV 4.99 THB 7.12 THB 9.26 THB 58
PEG = 1.0 4.99 THB 7.12 THB 9.26 THB 55
EPV 5.89 THB 7.91 THB 9.68 THB 71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 6.52 THB 13.55 THB 21.50 THB 63
DDM Multi-Stage 6.52 THB 11.40 THB 14.23 THB 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple 14.13 THB 18.84 THB 23.55 THB 63
P/S Multiple 11.44 THB 15.25 THB 19.07 THB 58
P/B Multiple 11.44 THB 15.25 THB 19.07 THB 55
EV/EBIT 14.30 THB 21.15 THB 27.99 THB 65
EV/EBITDA 25.80 THB 36.48 THB 47.15 THB 67
EV/Revenue 8.43 THB 14.71 THB 20.99 THB 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 14.36 THB 19.24 THB 28.72 THB 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 2.61 THB 7.11 THB 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income 21.07 THB 20.81 THB 18.04 THB 73
ROIC Compounder 5.89 THB 7.91 THB 9.68 THB 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 12.20 THB 17.42 THB 22.65 THB 65

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (19.24 THB) versus Growth DCF (2.61 THB). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 16.4
P/S ratio 0.30 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 0.9000 THB price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.4
Dividend yield 4.8% payout 78.9%
Net margin 1.8% FY2025
Return on equity 3.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 3.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 524B THB TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.7% 3y avg +3.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +5.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 5.1B THB FY2025
Net debt 98.3B THB FY2025 · ≈ 19.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 37
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 15
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

CP Axtra Public Company Limited engages in the wholesale and retail businesses of food and non-food products in Thailand, Malaysia, and internationally. The company operates through the Wholesale and the Retail and Mall segments.

Full company description

CP Axtra Public Company Limited engages in the wholesale and retail businesses of food and non-food products in Thailand, Malaysia, and internationally. The company operates through the Wholesale and the Retail and Mall segments. It offers general consumer goods, including fresh food, dry goods, and non-food products under the Makro brand name through its online platform and wholesale stores. The company is also involved in the import and trade of food products; warehouse management; investment in commercial space management; production of raw and cooked protein products, dairy products, and other food related products; building rental and integrated logistics services; and operation of restaurants. In addition, it provides freight, delivery rental, and storage services, as well as technical and supporting services. The company was formerly known as Siam Makro Public Company Limited and changed its name to CP Axtra Public Company Limited in June 2023. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CP Axtra Public Company Limited reported revenue of 518B THB in FY2025 versus 265B THB in FY2021, a compound +18.2%/yr. Reported net income was 9.4B THB in FY2025, compounding −8.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 51/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
518B THB
Latest YoY
+1.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in THB) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−1.7% (−6.5 + 4.8)
Revenue +18.2%/yr
FY21 265B THB
FY22 466B THB
FY23 486B THB
FY24 509B THB
FY25 518B THB
Net income −8.4%/yr
FY21 13.3B THB
FY22 7.7B THB
FY23 8.6B THB
FY24 10.6B THB
FY25 9.4B THB

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CP Axtra Public Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CPAXT

Peer Group

Food Distribution · 81 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside +18% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Above median
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.8% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.27× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.52× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.30× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.9× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.98× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE57 · sector 16
FUTURE24 · sector 12
PAST12 · sector 33
HEALTH87 · sector 94
DIVIDEND96 · sector 56

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sysco Corporation SYY $81.94 $59.83 −27%
US Foods Holding USFD $107.78 $53.53 −50%
Performance Food Group PFGC $107.25 $37.94 −65%
Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT €18.00 €21.59 +20%
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF $111.07 $37.27 −66%
Olam Group VC2 1.04 SGD 2.12 SGD +104%
United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI $43.62 $6.00 −86%
The Andersons, Inc ANDE $64.56 $47.78 −26%
Zhejiang Dongri Limited 600113 ¥31.47 ¥6.75 −79%
Dong Suh Companies Inc 026960 25,450 KRW 11,287 KRW −56%

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Frequently asked questions

Is CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 17.42 THB versus a price of 14.80 THB, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CPAXT?
Our model-based fair value for CP Axtra Public Company Limited is 17.42 THB (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 14.80 THB.
What is the quality score of CPAXT?
CP Axtra Public Company Limited has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
CP Axtra Public Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 524B THB (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CPAXT?
The net profit margin of CP Axtra Public Company Limited is about 1.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does CP Axtra Public Company Limited pay a dividend?
CP Axtra Public Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.80% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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