Performance Food Group Co (PFGC) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $17.8B · ISIN US71377A1034
What is Performance Food Group Co really worth?
Performance Food Group Co
PFGC · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 161% above our fair value of $37.94.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price −11.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($56.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($27.60 to $56.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.87 – $116.65 · fair‑value band $27.60 – $56.85 · the $99.15 price screens above the $37.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
Analysis
Performance Food Group Co (PFGC) currently trades at $99.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.94, implying the stock looks roughly 161.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $59.23 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $99.15 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $15.54, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Performance Food Group Co generated revenue of $63.3B at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue grew 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. Net debt stands at $7.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $27.60 (bear case) to $56.85 (bull case); at $99.15, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −62%, PFGC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.10 per share, which is 5.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($59.23) versus Dividend Discount ($3.16). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Performance Food Group Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the marketing and distribution of food and food-related products in North America. It operates through three segments: Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty.
Full company description
Performance Food Group Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the marketing and distribution of food and food-related products in North America. It operates through three segments: Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty. The company offers beef, pork, poultry, and seafood; frozen food and refrigerated products; dry groceries comprising cleaning and kitchen supplies and disposables; candy, snacks, and beverages; and fresh products, groceries, dairy, bread, beverages, general merchandise, and health and beauty care products, as well as cigarettes and other nicotine products. It also operates distribution centers. In addition, the company provides marketing programs and technology solutions to customer locations, as well as value-added services in the areas of product selection and procurement, menu development, and operational strategy. It serves individual restaurants, national and regional chain restaurants, vending distributors, theaters, retailers, and national, regional, and independent convenience stores. Performance Food Group Company was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Performance Food Group Co reported revenue of $63.3B in FY2025 versus $30.4B in FY2021, a compound +20.1%/yr. Reported net income was $340M in FY2025, compounding +70.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
of which total revenue +16.6 % · buybacks/dilution −5.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
PFGC screens 161% overvalued. Compare with Sysco Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Performance Food Group Company to Participate in the Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Conference
- Performance Food (PFGC) Grew Sales 6.4% as Product Inflation Hit 4.7%. How Much Growth Was Real?
- Performance Food Group Company Announces Board Updates
- Performance Food Group (PFGC) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Peer Group
Food Distribution · 81 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sysco Corporation SYY | $81.94 | $59.83 | −27% |
| US Foods Holding USFD | $107.78 | $53.53 | −50% |
| Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT | €18.00 | €21.59 | +20% |
| CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT | 14.80 THB | 17.42 THB | +18% |
| The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF | $111.07 | $37.27 | −66% |
| Olam Group VC2 | 1.04 SGD | 2.12 SGD | +104% |
| United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI | $43.62 | $6.00 | −86% |
| The Andersons, Inc ANDE | $64.56 | $47.78 | −26% |
| Zhejiang Dongri Limited 600113 | ¥31.47 | ¥6.75 | −79% |
| Dong Suh Companies Inc 026960 | 25,450 KRW | 11,287 KRW | −56% |
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