LUG.TO (LUG) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$25.2B (≈ $18.2B) · ISIN CA5503711080
What is LUG.TO really worth?
A strong business, but trading 37% above our fair value of C$74.07.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 31, 2026, revised from C$73.79 to C$74.07 (+0.4%) since Aug 28, 2026. Share price +24.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 85/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The model range is unusually wide (C$55.98 to C$157.67). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$6.21 – C$117.66 · fair‑value band C$55.98 – C$157.67 · the C$101.58 price screens above the C$74.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
LUG.TO (LUG) currently trades at C$101.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$74.07, implying the stock looks roughly 37.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 85/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$143.52 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$101.58 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at C$16.89, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, LUG.TO generated revenue of C$2.0B at a net margin of 45.7%. Revenue grew 59.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 68.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of C$409M. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$55.98 (bear case) to C$157.67 (bull case); at C$101.58, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −27%, LUG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly C$1.14 per share, which is 1.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$143.52) versus Asset-Based (C$3.77). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 82 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Lundin Gold Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and operates its mineral concessions in Ecuador. It explores for gold and silver deposits. The company holds interests in 27 metallic mineral concessions and 3 construction material concessions covering an area of approximately 65,000 hectares located in Ecuador.
Full company description
Lundin Gold Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and operates its mineral concessions in Ecuador. It explores for gold and silver deposits. The company holds interests in 27 metallic mineral concessions and 3 construction material concessions covering an area of approximately 65,000 hectares located in Ecuador. It also holds a 100% interest in the Fruta del Norte gold project that comprising seven concessions covering an area of approximately 5,566 hectares located in the Cordillera del Cóndor region of southeast Ecuador. The company was formerly known as Fortress Minerals Corp. and changed its name to Lundin Gold Inc. in December 2014. Lundin Gold Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
LUG.TO reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $733M in FY2021, a compound +25.4%/yr. Reported net income was $806M in FY2025, compounding +38.1%/yr from FY2021.
LUG screens 37% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Peer Group
Gold · 245 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $128.00 | $112.82 | −12% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥32.21 | ¥39.42 | +22% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$268.76 | C$213.40 | −21% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $41.23 | $50.66 | +23% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $271.31 | $96.63 | −64% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$201.40 | C$56.05 | −72% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $97.92 | $88.63 | −9% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $32.51 | $34.62 | +6% |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $262.85 | $93.56 | −64% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$23.19 | A$15.98 | −31% |
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