Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Northern Star Resources Ltd stock A$16.87, price A$24.16, upside -30.2%, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$6.00 – A$31.07 · fair‑value band A$9.95 – A$21.54 · the A$24.16 price screens above the A$16.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Northern Star Resources Limited engages in the exploration, development, mining, and processing of gold deposits. The company also sells refined gold. It operates in Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and Alaska.
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Northern Star Resources Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Subiaco, Australia.
Stock analysis
Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) currently trades at A$24.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$16.87, 30.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$50.28 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$24.16 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$7.34, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$9.95 (bear) to A$21.54 (bull), the price of A$24.16 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Northern Star Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$7.6B in FY2026 versus A$3.8B in FY2022, a compound +19.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.7B in FY2026, compounding +40.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$34.7B (≈ $24.3B) Large · P/E ratio 20.9 · P/S ratio 4.56 · EPS (TTM) A$1.16 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 21.8% · Return on equity 10.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −30%, NST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$9.95Fair Value A$16.87BullA$21.54
Price A$24.16 · Upside -30.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.1922 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPVA$11.70A$13.52A$15.0974
Residual IncomeA$9.63A$10.72A$13.5374
FCF DCFA$8.19A$12.56A$26.0573
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$8.19A$12.56A$26.0573
Owner EarningsA$5.48A$12.14A$25.4068
5Y Revenue ExitA$6.70A$11.62A$21.9167
5Y EBITDA ExitA$18.74A$35.95A$69.8069
5Y P/E ExitA$13.18A$31.13A$55.8465
10Y Revenue ExitA$7.01A$15.31A$20.5364
10Y EBITDA ExitA$15.75A$40.37A$84.9461
10Y P/E ExitA$11.82A$28.80A$57.2757
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$7.94A$55.37A$77.7061
Lynch FVA$28.61A$40.86A$53.1259
PEG = 1.0A$28.61A$40.86A$53.1255
EPVA$11.70A$13.52A$15.0974
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMA$4.61A$9.02A$13.4065
DDM Multi-StageA$4.61A$7.87A$9.5465
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$14.89A$19.85A$24.8163
P/S MultipleA$6.02A$8.02A$10.0358
P/B MultipleA$24.66A$32.88A$41.1055
EV/EBITA$18.90A$25.37A$31.8366
EV/EBITDAA$22.00A$29.49A$36.9967
EV/RevenueA$5.12A$7.53A$9.9353
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$5.48A$7.34A$10.9654
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$7.68A$14.47A$25.3473
Rev-Margin DCFA$7.41A$13.31A$25.6567
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$9.63A$10.72A$13.5374
ROIC CompounderA$12.61A$17.38A$21.8770
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$35.19A$50.28A$65.3665
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.5% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+123.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+24.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25.5% vs 16.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 35%
2026 sits 110% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.7% a year for the price and +16.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Average moat for a commodity gold producer shows thin evidence across categories and no premium pricing power, while the stand-alone plan with assets entering commissioning offers the main operational focus.
Main risk: Opaque mining sector data and commodity nature limit visibility into operational performance and margins at core assets such as the KCGM operation.
Northern Star rejected Gold Fields' unsolicited bid, pointing to undervaluation and higher jurisdictional risks from the equity-heavy offer. Now a new CEO takes over just as the Fimiston mill at KCGM enters commissioning and ramp-up, the company's key near-term catalyst. Will executing the stand-alone plan with these assets deliver more than any revised combination could offer, or will external pressure force renewed talks?
Compare Northern Star Resources Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 208 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside−30.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.9% · Above median
Return on assets7.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)21.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)33.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)18.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.22× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)4.56× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow50.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA8.4× · Pricier than median
PEG0.23× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)94· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)44· sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)46· sector 27
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Northern Star Resources Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NST
Frequently asked questions
Is Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$16.87 versus a price of A$24.16, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NST?
Our model-based fair value for Northern Star Resources Ltd is A$16.87 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$24.16.
What is the quality score of NST?
Northern Star Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$16.87 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$9.95, optimistic scenario A$21.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northern Star Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$16.87, about −30% upside versus a price of A$24.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$9.95, optimistic scenario A$21.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
Northern Star Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$7.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Northern Star Resources Ltd pay a dividend?
Northern Star Resources Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.28% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Northern Star Resources Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +27.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.5 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NST use?
Our models discount Northern Star Resources Ltd at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.33, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Northern Star Resources Ltd that is +27.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Northern Star Resources Ltd grew +22.5 % a year. The price currently implies +27.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Northern Star Resources Ltd (+27.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.99 %: that much free cash flow Northern Star Resources Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northern Star Resources Ltd it is A$16.87 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of A$24.16. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Northern Star Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, NST trades above its calculated fair value: price A$24.16, fair value A$16.87, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NST?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$24.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$16.87). For Northern Star Resources Ltd the two are A$7.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northern Star Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Northern Star Resources Ltd at about A$34.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is A$24.16; our models calculate a fair value of A$16.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NST?
Our models span a range for Northern Star Resources Ltd: cautious scenario A$9.95, base A$16.87, optimistic A$21.54 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price A$24.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NST?
Northern Star Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$16.87 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 19.5 (reported 20.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 20.8. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 2.2, P/S 4.6, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
What is the PEG ratio of NST?
The PEG ratio of Northern Star Resources Ltd is 0.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northern Star Resources Ltd (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 10.9%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NST from its 52-week high?
Northern Star Resources Ltd trades at A$24.16, about 22% below its 52-week high of A$31.07 and 42% above the low of A$16.99 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$16.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northern Star Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northern Star Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price A$24.16, calculated fair value A$16.87 (−30%), Quality Score 44/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NST calculated?
We run Northern Star Resources Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$16.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Northern Star Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was A$24.16. Our model-based fair value is A$16.87, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Northern Star Resources Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$21.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (A$9.95 to A$21.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) come from?
Earnings per share at Northern Star Resources Ltd grew +15.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.0 %, EBIT margin +0.5 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Northern Star Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
The market capitalisation of Northern Star Resources Ltd is A$34.7B (≈ $24.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Northern Star Resources Ltd is 4.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
Earnings per share at Northern Star Resources Ltd are A$1.16 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
The dividend yield of Northern Star Resources Ltd is 2.3% (payout 44.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 47.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
The net margin of Northern Star Resources Ltd is 21.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Northern Star Resources Ltd is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Northern Star Resources Ltd is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
The operating margin of Northern Star Resources Ltd is 33.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
Revenue at Northern Star Resources Ltd is growing +18.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)?
Earnings per share at Northern Star Resources Ltd are growing −1.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) carry?
The net debt of Northern Star Resources Ltd is A$707M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026