Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$28.7B (≈ $20.7B) · ISIN AU000000NST8
What is Northern Star Resources Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 45% above our fair value of A$15.98.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price +16.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$19.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$10.10 to A$19.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$6.08 – A$31.47 · fair‑value band A$10.10 – A$19.98 · the A$23.17 price screens above the A$15.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
Analysis
Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) currently trades at A$23.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$15.98, implying the stock looks roughly 45.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$40.49 per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$23.17 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$7.01, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Northern Star Resources Ltd generated revenue of A$7.0B at a net margin of 22.2%. Revenue grew 19.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. Net debt stands at A$125M. Fundamentals as of Aug 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$10.10 (bear case) to A$19.98 (bull case); at A$23.17, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −31%, NST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.6300 per share, which is 3.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$40.49) versus Asset-Based (A$7.01). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Northern Star Resources Limited engages in the exploration, development, mining, and processing of gold deposits. The company also sells refined gold. It operates in Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and Alaska. Northern Star Resources Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Subiaco, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Northern Star Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$6.4B in FY2025 versus A$2.8B in FY2021, a compound +23.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.3B in FY2025, compounding +6.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +26.9 % · buybacks/dilution −7.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NST screens 45% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Elliott Management Statement on Northern Star Resources Ltd
- Activist Investor Elliott Demands Board Revamp at Northern Star
- Elliott Management Sends Letter to Northern Star Resources Ltd Board of Directors
- How Investors Are Reacting To Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) Elliott’s Push For Board And Strategy Overhaul
Peer Group
Gold · 245 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $128.00 | $112.82 | −12% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥32.21 | ¥39.42 | +22% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$268.76 | C$213.40 | −21% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $41.23 | $50.66 | +23% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $271.31 | $96.63 | −64% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$201.40 | C$56.05 | −72% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $97.92 | $88.63 | −9% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $32.51 | $34.62 | +6% |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $262.85 | $93.56 | −64% |
| Lundin Gold Inc LUG | kr 708.00 | kr 504.76 | −29% |
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