Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · IT · Market cap €5.7B · ISIN IT0005541336
What is Lottomatica Group S.p.A. really worth?
A solid business, but trading 48% above our fair value of €16.45.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (€12.34 to €32.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
40‑month range €7.04 – €27.53 · fair‑value band €12.34 – €32.04 · the €24.27 price screens above the €16.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC) currently trades at €24.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €16.45, implying the stock looks roughly 47.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €26.34 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the €24.27 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €5.07, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Lottomatica Group S.p.A. generated revenue of €2.3B at a net margin of 8.4%. Revenue grew 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 39.0%. Net debt stands at €1.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €12.34 (bear case) to €32.04 (bull case); at €24.27, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −32%, LTMC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.2310 per share, which is 1.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€26.34) versus Asset-Based (€0.9300). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Lottomatica Group S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the gaming market in Italy. The company operates through Online, Sports Franchise, and Gaming Franchise segments.
Full company description
Lottomatica Group S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the gaming market in Italy. The company operates through Online, Sports Franchise, and Gaming Franchise segments. The Online segment provides a range of online games, such as sports betting, virtual betting, horse betting, online casino games, bingo, poker, betting exchange, and skill games through the GoldBet.it, Better.it, Lottomatica.it, Betflag.it, Totosì.it, and Planetwin365.it websites. The Sports Franchise segment offers various retail offerings, such as sports betting, virtual betting, and horserace betting under the GoldBet, Intralot, Better, and Planetwin365 brands. The Gaming Franchise segment engages in the management of gaming halls and concession activities for video lottery terminals and amusement with prize machines. Lottomatica Group S.p.A. was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Rome, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lottomatica Group S.p.A. reported revenue of €2.2B in FY2025 versus €808M in FY2021, a compound +29.1%/yr. Reported net income was €174M in FY2025.
LTMC screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Flutter Entertainment plc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Lottomatica Goes All-In on Spanish Rival Cirsa
- Lottomatica Group SpA (LOTMY) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Online Growth and ...
- Lottomatica Group SpA (LTMGF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Online Growth and ...
- Lottomatica Group SpA (LOTMY) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Profit Growth and ...
Peer Group
Gambling · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Gambling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flutter Entertainment plc FLUT | $98.08 | $88.33 | −10% |
| Evolution AB EVO | kr 832.60 | kr 982.64 | +18% |
| The Lottery Corporation TLC | A$5.36 | A$2.99 | −44% |
| Rush Street Interactive, Inc RSI | $26.05 | $3.10 | −88% |
| Super Group SGHC | $13.95 | $9.39 | −33% |
| Light & Wonder, Inc LNWO | $89.75 | $77.19 | −14% |
| Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN | $86.65 | $88.74 | +2% |
| FDJ United FDJ | €22.33 | €20.97 | −6% |
| Brightstar Lottery PLC BRSL | $11.31 | $17.61 | +56% |
| Tabcorp Holdings TAH | A$0.8900 | A$0.6000 | −33% |
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