Tabcorp Holdings (TAH) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$2.0B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from A$0.3700 to A$0.6000 (+62.2%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +7.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.8600). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.3400 to A$0.8600) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.3654 – A$1.17 · fair‑value band A$0.3400 – A$0.8600 · the A$0.9050 price screens above the A$0.6000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Tabcorp Holdings (TAH) currently trades at A$0.9050, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.6000, implying the stock looks roughly 33.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tabcorp Holdings generated revenue of A$2.6B at a net margin of 1.3%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.6%. Net debt stands at A$626M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.3400 (bear case) to A$0.8600 (bull case); at A$0.9050, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -6% fair-value upside, at -34%, TAH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (A$0.9000) versus Earnings-Based (A$0.2000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tabcorp Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides gambling, and entertainment and integrity services in Australia. It operates through Wagering and Media, and Integrity Services segments.
Full company description
Tabcorp Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides gambling, and entertainment and integrity services in Australia. It operates through Wagering and Media, and Integrity Services segments. The Wagering and Media segment offers totalisator and fixed odds betting on racing, sports, and other events through a network of TAB agencies, hotels and clubs, and on-course operations, as well as through retail, Internet, mobile devices, and phone. It also provides Trackside, a computer simulate racing product; and international wagering and pooling services. In addition, the company engages in the Sky Racing television channels broadcasting thoroughbred, and harness and greyhound racing to audiences; Sky Racing Active, a digital app providing Sky Racing's live and on-demand racing content across thoroughbred, and harness and greyhound racing; Sky Sports television channels; and Sky Sports Radio network. The Integrity Services segment provides electronic gaming machine (EGM) monitoring and related services; and provides products, technology, support, maintenance, and other gaming services. It offers its services under the TAB, Sky Racing, and MAX brands. The company was founded in 1961 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tabcorp Holdings reported revenue of A$2.6B in FY2025 versus A$2.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$36.6M in FY2025, compounding −39.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −11.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TAH screens 34% overvalued. Compare with Flutter Entertainment plc →
Peer Group
Gambling · 57 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gambling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flutter Entertainment plc FLUT | $98.08 | $88.33 | -10% |
| Evolution AB EVO | kr 737.20 | kr 973.92 | +32% |
| The Lottery Corporation TLC | A$5.43 | A$2.99 | -45% |
| Super Group SGHC | $12.81 | $9.39 | -27% |
| Light & Wonder, Inc LNWO | $89.75 | $77.19 | -14% |
| Lottomatica Group LTMC | €24.25 | €16.45 | -32% |
| Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN | $88.53 | $88.74 | +0% |
| FDJ United FDJ | €22.33 | €20.97 | -6% |
| Brightstar Lottery PLC BRSL | $11.31 | $17.61 | +56% |
| Betsson AB BETSB | kr 90.00 | kr 345.87 | +284% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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