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La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · AT · Market cap €4.3B

What is La Française des Jeux Société anonyme really worth?

LF La Française des Jeux Société anonyme FDJ · VI
Price€22.12
Fair Value€20.97
Upside−5.2%
Quality61/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of €20.97.

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Strengths

Ranks above peers (9/14)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +14.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.8% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 55/100
!Weak on valuation: 26 out of 100

For context

·9.49% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range €15.72 – €29.60

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price −1.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (€15.72 to €29.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€39.26 €20.37 Fair Value €20.97 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €20.37 – €39.26 · fair‑value band €15.72 – €29.60 · the €22.12 price screens above the €20.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ) currently trades at €22.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €20.97, implying the stock looks roughly 5.5% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €40.61 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the €22.12 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €3.54, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, La Française des Jeux Société anonyme generated revenue of €3.7B at a net margin of 4.8%. Revenue grew 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. Net debt stands at €1.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €15.72 (bear case) to €29.60 (bull case); at €22.12, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −5%, FDJ screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €33.94 €67.97 €147.77 71
EPV €14.66 €18.13 €21.13 71
Growth DCF €32.79 €70.81 €128.04 71
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €33.94 €67.97 €147.77 71
Owner Earnings €22.60 €51.70 €105.14 68
5Y Revenue Exit €17.24 €34.35 €57.76 67
5Y EBITDA Exit €39.45 €83.38 €141.49 69
5Y P/E Exit €15.81 €31.19 €49.15 66
10Y Revenue Exit €21.85 €40.61 €70.31 61
10Y EBITDA Exit €37.27 €77.15 €143.59 62
10Y P/E Exit €21.50 €38.25 €62.78 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €6.48 €37.35 €51.95 61
Lynch FV €10.53 €15.05 €19.56 58
PEG = 1.0 €10.53 €15.05 €19.56 55
EPV €14.66 €18.13 €21.13 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple €15.72 €20.97 €26.21 63
P/S Multiple €12.15 €16.20 €20.25 58
P/B Multiple €12.15 €16.20 €20.25 55
EV/EBIT €34.01 €47.80 €61.59 65
EV/EBITDA €44.85 €62.26 €79.66 67
EV/Revenue €9.39 €16.56 €23.73 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €2.64 €3.54 €5.28 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €32.79 €70.81 €128.04 71
Rev-Margin DCF €17.24 €34.06 €57.38 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income €6.05 €8.01 €27.19 61
ROIC Compounder €18.62 €29.02 €43.32 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €15.94 €22.77 €29.60 65

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€40.61) versus Asset-Based (€3.54). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (71).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 23.3
P/S ratio 1.11 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) €0.9500 price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.3
Dividend yield 9.5%
Net margin 4.8% FY2025
Return on equity 16.3% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 11.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 16.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) €3.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.6% 3y avg +14.3%
EPS growth (YoY) −78.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow €568M FY2025
Net debt €1.5B FY2025 · ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 76
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 54
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 88
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

FDJ United engages in the gambling operation and distribution business in France and internationally. The company operates through Lottery and Sports Betting; Online Betting and Gaming; International Lottery; and Payment and Services segments.

Full company description

FDJ United engages in the gambling operation and distribution business in France and internationally. The company operates through Lottery and Sports Betting; Online Betting and Gaming; International Lottery; and Payment and Services segments. It offers prize draws, such as Loto and Euromillions, as well as Illiko instant games; online offer (open to competition), including sports betting and horse-race betting, poker and casino games; and payment and collection service through a network of point"of"sale registered as agents. The company also provides B2B solutions; and owns Relax Gaming, a supplier of online gambling products. The company was formerly known as La Française des Jeux Société anonyme and changed its name to FDJ United in March 2025. FDJ United was founded in 1933 and is based in Boulogne-Billancourt, France.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

La Française des Jeux Société anonyme reported revenue of €3.7B in FY2025 versus €2.3B in FY2021, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was €176M in FY2025, compounding −12.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€3.7B
Latest YoY
+20.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+17.9% (8.4 + 9.5)
Revenue +13.0%/yr
FY21 €2.3B
FY22 €2.5B
FY23 €2.6B
FY24 €3.1B
FY25 €3.7B
Net income −12.1%/yr
FY21 €294M
FY22 €308M
FY23 €425M
FY24 €399M
FY25 €176M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "La Française des Jeux Société anonyme Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FDJ

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Gambling · 54 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside −5% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 16% · Above median
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 9.5% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 2.07× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 23.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 5.11× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.36× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 8.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.7× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE26 · sector 27
FUTURE53 · sector 9
PAST65 · sector 26
HEALTH0 · sector 89
DIVIDEND100 · sector 50

Insider activity: 35/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Gambling

Similar stocks

10 more Gambling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Flutter Entertainment plc FLUT $98.08 $88.33 −10%
Evolution AB EVO kr 832.60 kr 982.64 +18%
The Lottery Corporation TLC A$5.36 A$2.99 −44%
Rush Street Interactive, Inc RSI $26.05 $3.10 −88%
Super Group SGHC $13.95 $9.39 −33%
Light & Wonder, Inc LNWO $89.75 $77.19 −14%
Lottomatica Group LTMC €25.59 €16.45 −36%
Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN $86.65 $88.74 +2%
FDJ United FDJU €22.25 €20.97 −6%
Brightstar Lottery PLC BRSL $11.31 $17.61 +56%

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Frequently asked questions

Is La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €20.97 versus a price of €22.12, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of FDJ?
Our model-based fair value for La Française des Jeux Société anonyme is €20.97 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €22.12.
What is the quality score of FDJ?
La Française des Jeux Société anonyme has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
La Française des Jeux Société anonyme reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of FDJ?
The net profit margin of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme is about 4.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does La Française des Jeux Société anonyme pay a dividend?
La Française des Jeux Société anonyme currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.49% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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