SGHC Limited (SGHC) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $7.5B · ISIN GG00BMG42V42
What is SGHC Limited really worth?
SGHC Limited
SGHC · US
A strong business, but trading 51% above our fair value of $9.39.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 9 days ago
Share price +1.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.38 – $15.59 · fair‑value band $7.05 – $11.74 · the $14.17 price screens above the $9.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
SGHC Limited (SGHC) currently trades at $14.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.39, implying the stock looks roughly 50.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $16.70 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the $14.17 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.06, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, SGHC Limited generated revenue of $2.3B at a net margin of 10.5%. Revenue grew 18.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 35.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $438M. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.05 (bear case) to $11.74 (bull case); at $14.17, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −34%, SGHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.3248 per share, which is 3.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($16.70) versus Asset-Based ($1.06). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 80 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, and South/Latin America.
Full company description
Super Group (SGHC) Limited operates as an online sports betting and gaming operator. The company provides Betway, an online sports betting and casino offering; and Spin, a multi-brand online casino. It operates in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, and South/Latin America. Super Group (SGHC) Limited is based in Saint Peter Port, Guernsey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
SGHC Limited reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +10.5%/yr. Reported net income was $217M in FY2025, compounding −5.1%/yr from FY2021.
SGHC screens 51% overvalued. Compare with Flutter Entertainment plc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Super Group (SGHC) After Raised 2026 Guidance And The Case For Undervaluation
- Super Group (SGHC) Stock Sees Modest Fair Value Lift As Analysts Raise Targets
- Super Group (SGHC) Ltd (SGHC) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Raised ...
Peer Group
Gambling · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Gambling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flutter Entertainment plc FLUT | $98.08 | $88.33 | −10% |
| Evolution AB EVO | kr 832.60 | kr 982.64 | +18% |
| The Lottery Corporation TLC | A$5.36 | A$2.99 | −44% |
| Rush Street Interactive, Inc RSI | $26.05 | $3.10 | −88% |
| Light & Wonder, Inc LNWO | $89.75 | $77.19 | −14% |
| Lottomatica Group LTMC | €25.59 | €16.45 | −36% |
| Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN | $86.65 | $88.74 | +2% |
| FDJ United FDJ | €22.33 | €20.97 | −6% |
| Brightstar Lottery PLC BRSL | $11.31 | $17.61 | +56% |
| Tabcorp Holdings TAH | A$0.8900 | A$0.6000 | −33% |
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