Evolution AB (publ) (EVO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · SE · Market cap 132B SEK (≈ $13.8B) · ISIN SE0012673267
What is Evolution AB (publ) really worth?
A strong business, trading 14% below our fair value of kr 982.64.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 1, 2026, revised from kr 981.37 to kr 982.64 (+0.1%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +15.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (kr 737.83 to kr 3,686). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 515.80 – kr 1,436 · fair‑value band kr 737.83 – kr 3,686 · the kr 846.00 price screens below the kr 982.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Evolution AB (publ) (EVO) currently trades at kr 846.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 982.64, implying the stock looks roughly 13.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 255.03 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 846.00 price. Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at kr 170.23, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Evolution AB (publ) generated revenue of 2.1B SEK at a net margin of 51.5%. Revenue declined 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 652M SEK. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 737.83 (bear case) to kr 3,686 (bull case); at kr 846.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at 16%, EVO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly kr 38.71 per share, which is 3.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (kr 255.03) versus Asset-Based (kr 14.07). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
Notify me when EVO reaches fair value
Put EVO on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 78 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Evolution AB (publ) develops, produces, markets, and licenses live casino and slots solutions to gaming operators in Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America, and internationally.
Full company description
Evolution AB (publ) develops, produces, markets, and licenses live casino and slots solutions to gaming operators in Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America, and internationally. It offers casino and live games shows under the Evolution and Ezugi brands; online casino under the NetEnt brand name; and casino games and software comprising jackpot system, a smart spins bonus management application, and tournaments gamification under the Red Tiger brand. It also provides slots titles and game mechanics under the Big Time Gaming brand; online casino platform and games under the Nolimit City brand name; HD spinning gaming wheels under the DigiWheel brand; and B2B social streaming games under the Livespins brand name. The company was formerly known as Evolution Gaming Group AB (publ). Evolution AB (publ) was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Evolution AB (publ) reported revenue of €2.1B in FY2025 versus €1.1B in FY2021, a compound +18.7%/yr. Reported net income was €1.1B in FY2025, compounding +15.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +43.3 % · buybacks/dilution −1.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch EVO: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Gambling · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Gambling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flutter Entertainment plc FLUT | $98.08 | $88.33 | −10% |
| The Lottery Corporation TLC | A$5.36 | A$2.99 | −44% |
| Rush Street Interactive, Inc RSI | $26.05 | $3.10 | −88% |
| Super Group SGHC | $13.95 | $9.39 | −33% |
| Light & Wonder, Inc LNWO | $89.75 | $77.19 | −14% |
| Lottomatica Group LTMC | €25.59 | €16.45 | −36% |
| Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN | $86.65 | $88.74 | +2% |
| FDJ United FDJ | €22.33 | €20.97 | −6% |
| Brightstar Lottery PLC BRSL | $11.31 | $17.61 | +56% |
| Tabcorp Holdings TAH | A$0.8900 | A$0.6000 | −33% |
Compare Evolution AB (publ) with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Evolution AB (publ) (EVO) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of EVO?
What is the quality score of EVO?
What is the revenue of Evolution AB (publ) (EVO)?
What is the net profit margin of EVO?
Does Evolution AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Watch Evolution AB (publ) in the live analysis
One click puts Evolution AB (publ) on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.