Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $2.0B · ISIN GB00BVG7F061
What is Brightstar Lottery PLC really worth?
Brightstar Lottery PLC
BRSL · US
Below-average quality, trading 36% below our fair value of $17.61.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +0.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($13.20). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.04 – $24.46 · fair‑value band $13.20 – $22.01 · the $11.34 price screens below the $17.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) currently trades at $11.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.61, implying the stock looks roughly 35.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $35.11 per share, and 10 of the 15 models we run sit above the $11.34 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.19, and 5 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Brightstar Lottery PLC generated revenue of $2.5B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue grew 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.3%. Net debt stands at $2.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.20 (bear case) to $22.01 (bull case); at $11.34, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at 55%, BRSL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($35.11) versus DCF Models ($1.61). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Brightstar Lottery PLC provides lottery solutions in the United States, Italy, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company designs, sells, operates, and leases a suite of point-of-sale machines that reconciles lottery funds between the retailer and the lottery authority; operates and provides lottery transaction processing systems; produces instant …
Full company description
Brightstar Lottery PLC provides lottery solutions in the United States, Italy, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company designs, sells, operates, and leases a suite of point-of-sale machines that reconciles lottery funds between the retailer and the lottery authority; operates and provides lottery transaction processing systems; produces instant ticket games; and offers printing services, such as instant ticket marketing plans and graphic design, programming, packaging, shipping, and delivery services, as well as lottery management services; instant lottery systems; and iLottery, a platform that provides access to eInstant and draw games. It also processes commercial transactions, such as prepaid cellular telephone recharges, bill payments, e-vouchers and retail-based programs, electronic tax payments, prepaid card recharges, stamp duty, and money transfer services; sells additional machines and central computers to expand existing systems or replace existing equipment; and licenses related software. In addition, the company provides marketing services, such as retail optimization and lottery brand awareness campaigns; telephone support, software and hardware maintenance, software development, and other professional services; and ancillary maintenance and support services for systems, equipment, and software. The company was formerly known as International Game Technology PLC and changed its name to Brightstar Lottery PLC in July 2025. Brightstar Lottery PLC was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Brightstar Lottery PLC reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $4.1B in FY2021, a compound −11.5%/yr. Reported net income was $147M in FY2025, compounding −25.7%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- This is why Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) is a Top UK Dividend Stock
- Is Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
- Brightstar (BRSL) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
- Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Digital Growth Amid ...
Peer Group
Gambling · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Gambling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flutter Entertainment plc FLUT | $98.08 | $88.33 | −10% |
| Evolution AB EVO | kr 832.60 | kr 982.64 | +18% |
| The Lottery Corporation TLC | A$5.36 | A$2.99 | −44% |
| Rush Street Interactive, Inc RSI | $26.05 | $3.10 | −88% |
| Super Group SGHC | $13.95 | $9.39 | −33% |
| Light & Wonder, Inc LNWO | $89.75 | $77.19 | −14% |
| Lottomatica Group LTMC | €25.59 | €16.45 | −36% |
| Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN | $86.65 | $88.74 | +2% |
| FDJ United FDJ | €22.33 | €20.97 | −6% |
| Tabcorp Holdings TAH | A$0.8900 | A$0.6000 | −33% |
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