Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $6.0B · ISIN US1714841087

What is Churchill Downs Incorporated really worth?

Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN · US

Price$90.28

Fair Value$88.74

Upside−1.7%

Quality55/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $88.74.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +22.7 %/yr)

✓Solidly profitable · 13.2% net margin

✓Wide moat 71/100

Risks

!High debt · generates free cash flow

!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)

!Weak on future: 16 out of 100

!Weak on dividend: 10 out of 100

For context

·0.49% dividend yield

Evidence: High Range $46.39 – $149.82

Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +5.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The model range is unusually wide ($46.39 to $149.82). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $82.14 – $147.58 · fair‑value band $46.39 – $149.82 · the $90.28 price screens above the $88.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) currently trades at $90.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $88.74, implying the stock looks roughly 1.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $103.10 per share, and 7 of the 25 models we run sit above the $90.28 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.71, and 18 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Churchill Downs Incorporated generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of 13.2%. Revenue grew 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 35.0%. Net debt stands at $4.9B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $46.39 (bear case) to $149.82 (bull case); at $90.28, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −2%, CHDN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.39 per share, which is 3.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

Owner Earnings best evidence — $35.10 $107.78 73

FCF DCF $17.11 $80.44 $184.91 71

5Y EBITDA Exit $36.84 $121.60 $227.44 70

All 25 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $17.11 $80.44 $184.91 71

Owner Earnings best evidence — $35.10 $107.78 73

5Y Revenue Exit — $12.25 $49.90 69

5Y EBITDA Exit $36.84 $121.60 $227.44 70

5Y P/E Exit $14.89 $76.82 $146.76 65

10Y Revenue Exit — $24.16 $68.34 64

10Y EBITDA Exit $28.99 $102.01 $212.12 62

10Y P/E Exit $14.82 $70.14 $146.79 58

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $37.05 $165.66 $227.00 64

Lynch FV $43.09 $61.56 $80.03 61

PEG = 1.0 $43.09 $61.56 $80.03 57

EPV $8.33 $20.47 $30.94 69

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $3.88 $7.73 $11.71 67

DDM Multi-Stage $3.88 $6.68 $8.16 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple $89.89 $119.85 $149.82 63

P/S Multiple $37.78 $50.38 $62.97 58

P/B Multiple $43.46 $57.95 $72.44 55

EV/EBIT $74.08 $121.62 $169.17 64

EV/EBITDA $57.46 $99.46 $141.47 65

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $7.24 $9.71 $14.49 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $16.48 $74.39 $166.52 70

Rev-Margin DCF — $12.49 $50.02 69

Economic Profit

Residual Income $43.61 $71.94 $1,098 64

ROIC Compounder $8.33 $26.78 $53.83 65

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $72.17 $103.10 $134.03 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($103.10) versus Dividend Discount ($6.68). Highest evidence: Owner Earnings (73).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 16.6

P/S ratio 2.16 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) $5.43 price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.6

Dividend yield 0.5% payout 8.1%

Net margin 13.0% FY2025

Return on equity 35.0% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 8.5% avg 5y

Operating margin 21.7% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) $2.9B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +3.1% 3y avg +17.4%

EPS growth (YoY) +13.4%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow $495M FY2025

Net debt $4.9B FY2025 · ≈ 9.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 49

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 42

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 78

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 11

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 42

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 72

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 37

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 24

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 100

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

Churchill Downs Incorporated operates live and historical racing entertainment venues, online wagering businesses, and regional casino gaming properties in the United States. It operates through three segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming. The Live and Historical Racing segment engages in live and historical pari-mutuel racing related activities at Churchill Downs Racetrack and its historical racing properties in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire; provides racing event-related services, including admissions, personal seat licenses, sponsorships, television rights, and other miscellaneous services, as well as food and beverages services. The Wagering Services and Solutions engages in pari-mutuel wagers through TwinSpires, which operates the online horse racing wagering business for TwinSpires.com, BetAmerica.com, and other white-label platforms; facilitates dollar wagering; provides the Bloodstock Research Information Services platform for horse racing statistical data; offers streaming video of live horse races, replays, and an assortment of racing and handicapping information; and provides technology services to third parties. This segment also operates retail and online sports betting businesses, United Tote, which manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for racetracks, OTBs, and other pari-mutuel wagering businesses, and Exacta, which provides central determinant system technology in HRMs. The Gaming segment operates the casino properties and associated racetracks, which include slot machines, table games, video lottery terminals, video poker, HRMs, ancillary food and beverage services, hotel services, commission on pari-mutuel wagering, racing event-related services, and other miscellaneous operations. Churchill Downs Incorporated was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Churchill Downs Incorporated reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was $380M in FY2025, compounding +11.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

$2.9B

Latest YoY

+7.0%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+17.4%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+22.7%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (32Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+13.2%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+18.6% (18.1 + 0.5)

Revenue +16.3%/yr

FY21 $1.6B

FY22 $1.8B

FY23 $2.5B

FY24 $2.7B

FY25 $2.9B

Net income +11.1%/yr

FY21 $249M

FY22 $439M

FY23 $417M

FY24 $427M

FY25 $380M

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +25.7 % p.a.

Revenue per share +14.6 %

of which total revenue +10.4 % · buybacks/dilution +3.8 %

EBIT margin +8.1 %

Tax rate +2.0 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Churchill Downs Incorporated · Fair Value
$88.74 −2%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CHDN" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Churchill Downs Incorporated · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$88.74</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−2%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Churchill Downs Incorporated Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CHDN

Peer Group

Gambling · 54 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Below median

Fair Value upside −2% · Above median

Return on equity (TTM) 35% · Top 25%

Return on assets 6% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%

Revenue growth 3% · Above median

Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Bottom 25%

Debt / equity 5.02× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.6× · Cheaper than median

P/B 5.96× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 2.04× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 12.2× · Pricier than median

EV/EBITDA 11.2× · Pricier than median

PEG 1.69× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE31 · sector 27

FUTURE16 · sector 9

PAST100 · sector 26

HEALTH0 · sector 89

DIVIDEND10 · sector 50

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Gambling

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Frequently asked questions

Is Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $88.74 versus a price of $90.28, about −2% upside (fairly valued).

What is the fair value of CHDN?

Our model-based fair value for Churchill Downs Incorporated is $88.74 (as of Sep 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $90.28.

What is the quality score of CHDN?

Churchill Downs Incorporated has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the revenue of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?

Churchill Downs Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 3, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of CHDN?

The net profit margin of Churchill Downs Incorporated is about 13.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Churchill Downs Incorporated pay a dividend?

Churchill Downs Incorporated currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.49% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 3, 2026).

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