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Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · PL · Market cap 12.2B PLN (≈ $3.3B) · ISIN PLKETY000011

What is Grupa KĘTY SA really worth?

GK Grupa KĘTY SA KTY · WAR
Price1,230 PLN
Fair Value903.30 PLN
Upside−26.6%
Quality75/100

A strong business, but trading 36% above our fair value of 903.30 PLN.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 10.7% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/15)
✓Wide moat 68/100

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +9.2 %/yr)
!Weak on future: 8 out of 100

For context

·3.99% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range 644.13 PLN – 1,162 PLN

Fair value as of: Aug 25, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 11 days ago

Share price −4.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1,162 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • A fairly wide model range (644.13 PLN to 1,162 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

1,334 PLN 355.04 PLN Fair Value 903.30 PLN May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 355.04 PLN – 1,334 PLN · fair‑value band 644.13 PLN – 1,162 PLN · the 1,230 PLN price screens above the 903.30 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 25, 2026.

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Analysis

Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY) currently trades at 1,230 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 903.30 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 36.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 1,157 PLN per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the 1,230 PLN price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 135.93 PLN, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Grupa KĘTY SA generated revenue of 5.5B PLN at a net margin of 10.7%. Revenue grew 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.1%. Net debt stands at 1.3B PLN. Fundamentals as of Aug 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 644.13 PLN (bear case) to 1,162 PLN (bull case); at 1,230 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at −27%, KTY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 7.31 PLN per share, which is 0.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 803.39 PLN 1,462 PLN 2,563 PLN 77
Growth DCF 803.57 PLN 1,425 PLN 2,449 PLN 76
5Y EBITDA Exit 673.88 PLN 1,201 PLN 1,841 PLN 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 803.39 PLN 1,462 PLN 2,563 PLN 77
Owner Earnings 637.30 PLN 1,174 PLN 2,073 PLN 73
5Y Revenue Exit 581.70 PLN 1,016 PLN 1,587 PLN 71
5Y EBITDA Exit 673.88 PLN 1,201 PLN 1,841 PLN 74
5Y P/E Exit 647.61 PLN 1,148 PLN 1,701 PLN 70
10Y Revenue Exit 630.78 PLN 1,062 PLN 1,685 PLN 65
10Y EBITDA Exit 710.52 PLN 1,195 PLN 1,892 PLN 67
10Y P/E Exit 693.31 PLN 1,157 PLN 1,778 PLN 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 391.79 PLN 1,636 PLN 2,231 PLN 64
Lynch FV 414.21 PLN 591.72 PLN 769.24 PLN 61
PEG = 1.0 414.21 PLN 591.72 PLN 769.24 PLN 57
EPV 574.55 PLN 686.78 PLN 784.98 PLN 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 507.60 PLN 1,055 PLN 1,674 PLN 66
DDM Multi-Stage 507.60 PLN 889.95 PLN 1,108 PLN 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 734.61 PLN 979.48 PLN 1,224 PLN 63
P/S Multiple 626.96 PLN 835.95 PLN 1,045 PLN 58
P/B Multiple 456.47 PLN 608.63 PLN 760.78 PLN 55
EV/EBIT 737.30 PLN 1,016 PLN 1,295 PLN 66
EV/EBITDA 678.72 PLN 937.89 PLN 1,197 PLN 67
EV/Revenue 486.36 PLN 737.15 PLN 987.93 PLN 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 101.44 PLN 135.93 PLN 202.88 PLN 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 803.57 PLN 1,425 PLN 2,449 PLN 76
Rev-Margin DCF 581.70 PLN 1,013 PLN 1,553 PLN 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income 341.05 PLN 404.73 PLN 1,210 PLN 66
ROIC Compounder 654.36 PLN 893.53 PLN 1,193 PLN 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 628.82 PLN 898.31 PLN 1,168 PLN 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (1,157 PLN) versus Asset-Based (135.93 PLN). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 20.6
P/S ratio 2.12 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 59.88 PLN price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.6
Dividend yield 4.0% payout 81.9%
Net margin 10.3% FY2025
Return on equity 28.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 19.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 14.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 5.5B PLN TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +1.5% 3y avg −2.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +19.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 717M PLN FY2025
Net debt 1.3B PLN FY2025 · ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 75/100

Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73

Profitability 85
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 62
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 65
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 73
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Grupa Kety S.A. produces and sells aluminum profiles and components in Poland and internationally. It operates through three segments: Extruded Products, Aluminum Systems, and Flexible Packaging. The company produces and sells aluminum profiles and components.

Full company description

Grupa Kety S.A. produces and sells aluminum profiles and components in Poland and internationally. It operates through three segments: Extruded Products, Aluminum Systems, and Flexible Packaging. The company produces and sells aluminum profiles and components. It also engages in the production, trading, and sale of aluminum facades systems, doors and windows, internal structures, external aluminum roller shutters, and roller gates for the construction business. In addition, the company produces and sells pergolas, external blinds, awnings, reflex screens, and sunbreakers. Further, it is involved in the production and sale of printed flexible packaging and BOPP films for food manufacturers and other sectors. It sells its products under the Grupa Kety, Aluprof, Alupol Packaging, and Selt Sp. z o.o. brands. The company serves construction, automotive, transport, electrical engineering, household equipment, advertising, tourism, food concentrates, confectionery, fats, dairy, meat, cold meat, pharmaceutical, and chemical industries. The company was formerly known as Zaklady Metali Lekkich "Kety' and changed its name to Grupa Kety S.A. in 2000. The company was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Kety, Poland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Grupa KĘTY SA reported revenue of 5.5B PLN in FY2025 versus 4.6B PLN in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was 568M PLN in FY2025, compounding −1.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
5.5B PLN
Latest YoY
+6.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+9.2% (5.2 + 4.0)
Revenue +4.6%/yr
FY21 4.6B PLN
FY22 5.9B PLN
FY23 5.2B PLN
FY24 5.1B PLN
FY25 5.5B PLN
Net income −1.1%/yr
FY21 595M PLN
FY22 678M PLN
FY23 539M PLN
FY24 560M PLN
FY25 568M PLN
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024) +14.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +12.6 %

of which total revenue +13.0 % · buybacks/dilution −0.3 %

EBIT margin +2.4 %
Tax rate −1.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

KTY screens 36% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →

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Grupa KĘTY SA · Fair Value
903.30 PLN −36%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupa KĘTY SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KTY

Peer Group

Aluminum · 83 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −27% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 28% · Top 25%
Return on assets 12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Above median
Revenue growth 2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.0% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.51× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.64× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.60× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 4.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.70× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 8
FUTURE8 · sector 28
PAST100 · sector 34
HEALTH74 · sector 91
DIVIDEND80 · sector 38

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 25, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 ¥18.28 ¥23.44 +28%
China Hongqiao Group 1378 HK$22.64 HK$45.69 +102%
Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO ₹1,028 ₹997.35 −3%
Aluminum Corporation 601600 ¥9.45 ¥16.30 +72%
Norsk Hydro ASA NHY kr 92.30 kr 58.10 −37%
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 7.90 MYR 3.88 MYR −51%
Alcoa Corporation AAI A$73.19 A$49.53 −32%
Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 ¥25.88 ¥29.68 +15%
Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 ¥27.36 ¥30.28 +11%
Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 ¥12.67 ¥21.86 +73%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 903.30 PLN versus a price of 1,230 PLN, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KTY?
Our model-based fair value for Grupa KĘTY SA is 903.30 PLN (as of Aug 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,230 PLN.
What is the quality score of KTY?
Grupa KĘTY SA has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
Grupa KĘTY SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.5B PLN (latest available figure, as of Aug 25, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of KTY?
The net profit margin of Grupa KĘTY SA is about 10.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Grupa KĘTY SA pay a dividend?
Grupa KĘTY SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.99% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 25, 2026).
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