Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.71 – $14.62 · fair‑value band $6.66 – $11.75 · the $6.27 price screens below the $8.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 20, 2026.
Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. engages in the provision of public railway transportation services for local communities in Japan. It operates through the Transportation, Distribution, Real Estate, Leisure and Service, and Construction segments. The Transportation segment is involved in the railway, bus, and taxi businesses.
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Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. engages in the provision of public railway transportation services for local communities in Japan. It operates through the Transportation, Distribution, Real Estate, Leisure and Service, and Construction segments. The Transportation segment is involved in the railway, bus, and taxi businesses. Its Distribution segment consists of stores, department stores, and other retail businesses. The Real Estate segment engages in the leasing of residential properties and an office building, as well as the sale of units in apartment buildings, a mixed-use development project, and commercial facilities. Its Leisure and Service segment develops restaurants, movies, hotels, advertising agencies, and travel agencies. The Construction segment is involved in engineering projects and construction of commercial facilities. The company also engages in the rail car maintenance, insurance agency, and driving school businesses. As of April 1, 2025, it operates 762 passenger cars and 91 stations covering 178.8 kilometers of railway. Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1909 and is headquartered in Ichikawa, Japan.
Stock analysis
Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF) currently trades at $6.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.88, implying the stock looks roughly 29.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $10.69 per share, and 7 of the 13 models we run sit above the $6.27 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $0.9043, and 6 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $6.66 (bear) to $11.75 (bull), the price of $6.27 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. reported revenue of ¥335B in FY2026 versus ¥214B in FY2022, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥48.3B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $3.3B · P/E ratio 10.1 · P/S ratio 1.46 · EPS (TTM) $0.6200 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 14.4% · Return on equity 9.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 42%, KELRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.66Fair Value $8.88Bull $11.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.48/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−13.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11% vs −6%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → 10%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 112 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+39% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KELRF
Frequently asked questions
Is Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.88 versus a price of $6.27, about +42% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KELRF?
Our model-based fair value for Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. is $8.88 (as of Sep 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.27.
What is the quality score of KELRF?
Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.88 (as of Sep 20, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.66, optimistic scenario $11.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.88, about +42% upside versus a price of $6.27 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.66, optimistic scenario $11.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF)?
Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥332B (latest available figure, as of Sep 20, 2026).
Does Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 20, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. it is $8.88 per share (as of Sep 20, 2026), against a price of $6.27. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 20, 2026, KELRF trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.27, fair value $8.88, a gap of about +42% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KELRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.88). For Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. the two are $2.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. at about $3.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 20, 2026). Per share that is $6.27; our models calculate a fair value of $8.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KELRF?
Our models span a range for Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario $6.66, base $8.88, optimistic $11.75 per share (as of Sep 20, 2026, price $6.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KELRF?
Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.1 (as of Sep 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.88 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (as of Sep 20, 2026): return on equity 9.1%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KELRF from its 52-week high?
Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. trades at $6.27, about 31% below its 52-week high of $9.03 (as of Sep 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 20, 2026: price $6.27, calculated fair value $8.88 (+42%), Quality Score 34/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KELRF calculated?
We run Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. currently trades 42 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $6.27. Our model-based fair value is $8.88, about +42% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.66). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Where does the earnings growth of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF) come from?
Earnings per share at Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. grew +0.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −6.0 %, EBIT margin −1.1 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +8.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF)?
The market capitalisation of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. is $3.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. is 1.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF)?
Earnings per share at Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. are $0.6200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF)?
The dividend yield of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. is 2.1% (payout 20.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF)?
The net margin of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. is 14.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF)?
The operating margin of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF)?
Revenue at Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF)?
Earnings per share at Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. are growing −38.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF) generate?
The free cash flow of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. is −¥42.8B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. (KELRF) carry?
The net debt of Keisei Electric Railway Co. Ltd. is ¥90.4B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 20, 2026