Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $3.0B · ISIN US3886891015
What is Graphic Packaging Holding Company really worth?
Graphic Packaging Holding Company
GPK · US
Below-average quality, trading 53% below our fair value of $22.93.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −10.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($16.05). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range ($16.05 to $31.18) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.82 – $29.11 · fair‑value band $16.05 – $31.18 · the $10.70 price screens below the $22.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) currently trades at $10.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.93, implying the stock looks roughly 53.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $25.51 per share, and 9 of the 16 models we run sit above the $10.70 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.10, and 7 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Graphic Packaging Holding Company generated revenue of $8.7B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 1.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.6%. Net debt stands at $5.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.05 (bear case) to $31.18 (bull case); at $10.70, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 114%, GPK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.3248 per share, which is 1.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($25.51) versus Dividend Discount ($6.10). Highest evidence: EPV (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, production, and sale of consumer packaging products to brands in food, beverage, foodservice, household, and other consumer products in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.
Full company description
Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, production, and sale of consumer packaging products to brands in food, beverage, foodservice, household, and other consumer products in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Americas Paperboard Packaging and International Paperboard Packaging. The Americas Paperboard Packaging segment includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies serving the food, beverage and consumer product markets and cups, lids and food containers sold primarily to foodservice companies and quick-service restaurants in the Americas. The International Paperboard Packaging includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to CPG companies serving the food, foodservice, beverage and consumer product markets, including healthcare and beauty, outside of the Americas. It also designs, manufactures, and installs specialized packaging machines. The company sells its products through sales offices, as well as through broker arrangements with third parties. Graphic Packaging Holding Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported revenue of $8.6B in FY2025 versus $7.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was $444M in FY2025, compounding +21.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.7 % · buybacks/dilution +0.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Q2 Earnings Highlights: Graphic Packaging Holding (NYSE:GPK) Vs The Rest Of The Industrial Packaging Stocks
- 5 Revealing Analyst Questions From Graphic Packaging Holding’s Q2 Earnings Call
- Graphic Packaging (GPK) Tightens Global Footprint as It Reaffirms 2026 Sales Outlook
- Graphic Packaging profit tumbles 77% in second quarter
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 270 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW | $49.25 | $22.66 | −54% |
| Packaging Corporation PKG | $233.94 | $122.63 | −48% |
| International Paper Company IP | $36.46 | $21.44 | −41% |
| Amcor plc AMCR | $46.52 | $18.79 | −60% |
| Ball Corporation BALL | $61.67 | $36.57 | −41% |
| Crown Holdings CCK | $119.08 | $118.59 | +0% |
| Avery Dennison Corporation AVY | $173.07 | $113.05 | −35% |
| CCL Industries Inc CCLA | C$93.99 | C$77.64 | −17% |
| Stora Enso Oyj STEAV | €9.74 | €11.42 | +17% |
| SIG Group SIGN | CHF 13.66 | CHF 8.32 | −39% |
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