GMéxico Transportes S.A.B. de C.V (GMXTF) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $4.9B · ISIN MX01GM1Z0019
What is GMéxico Transportes S.A.B. de C.V really worth?
GMéxico Transportes S.A.B. de C.V
GMXTF · US
A solid business, trading 56% below our fair value of $2.80.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 23, 2026, revised from $2.77 to $2.80 (+1.1%) since Aug 13, 2026.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.64). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($1.64 to $3.61) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7300 – $2.32 · fair‑value band $1.64 – $3.61 · the $1.23 price screens below the $2.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
Analysis
GMéxico Transportes S.A.B. de C.V (GMXTF) currently trades at $1.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.80, implying the stock looks roughly 56.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $2.70 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the $1.23 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.5276, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, GMéxico Transportes S.A.B. de C.V generated revenue of $64.6B at a net margin of 13.5%. Revenue declined 0.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.1%. Net debt stands at $43.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.64 (bear case) to $3.61 (bull case); at $1.23, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at 128%, GMXTF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($2.70) versus Asset-Based ($0.5276). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
GMéxico Transportes, S.A.B. de C.V. provides logistics and ground transportation solutions in Mexico. The company offers general hauling and intermodal services by railroad, ancillary terminal management, and interterminal hauling services. It also provides freight and multimodal rail services, and auxiliary services.
Full company description
GMéxico Transportes, S.A.B. de C.V. provides logistics and ground transportation solutions in Mexico. The company offers general hauling and intermodal services by railroad, ancillary terminal management, and interterminal hauling services. It also provides freight and multimodal rail services, and auxiliary services. In addition, the company operates a fleet of 822 locomotives and 36,935 rail cars. It serves agricultural, intermodal, minerals, automotive, chemicals and fertilizers, energy, industrial, metallurgical, and cement segments. The company is based in Mexico City, Mexico. GMéxico Transportes, S.A.B. de C.V. operates as a subsidiary of Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
GMéxico Transportes S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 64.7B MXN in FY2025 versus 51.2B MXN in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was 9.3B MXN in FY2025, compounding +5.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.3 % · buybacks/dilution −0.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $307.41 | $141.29 | −54% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $48.99 | $12.62 | −74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $94.12 | $34.33 | −64% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNR | C$175.06 | C$92.68 | −47% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $332.96 | $114.36 | −66% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $297.57 | $144.80 | −51% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.87 | ¥5.65 | +16% |
| MTR Corporation 0066 | HK$32.04 | HK$17.85 | −44% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.98 | ¥9.53 | +59% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.72 | ¥6.22 | +32% |
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