Diageo PLC (DGE) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · GB · Market cap 33.7B GBX · ISIN GB0002374006
What is Diageo PLC really worth?
A solid business, trading 10% below our fair value of £18.42.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +1.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (£9.89 to £23.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £13.49 – £36.20 · fair‑value band £9.89 – £23.95 · the £16.57 price screens below the £18.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Diageo PLC (DGE) currently trades at £16.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £18.42, implying the stock looks roughly 10.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £18.42 per share, and 9 of the 25 models we run sit above the £16.57 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £3.34, and 16 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Diageo PLC generated revenue of $19.8B at a net margin of 12.2%. Revenue declined 4.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.7%. Net debt stands at $22.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £9.89 (bear case) to £23.95 (bull case); at £16.57, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at 11%, DGE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £0.1818 per share, which is 1.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (£18.42) versus Asset-Based (£3.34). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Diageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, and Africa.
Full company description
Diageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, and Africa. It offers beer, scotch, gin, vodka, rum, liqueur, raki, wine, Irish and Canadian whisky, US and Indian whisky, Chinese whisky, cachaça, tequila, brandy, and Chinese white spirit beverages. The company also provides ready-to-drink and non-alcoholic beverages. Its principal brands include Johnnie Walker, Don Julio, Guinness, Crown Royal, Smirnoff, Baileys, Captain Morgan, Casamigos, Shui Jing Fang, and McDowell's. The company was formerly known as Guinness plc and changed its name to Diageo plc in February 1998. The company was incorporated in 1886 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Diageo PLC reported revenue of £20.2B in FY2025 versus £12.7B in FY2021, a compound +12.3%/yr. Reported net income was £2.4B in FY2025, compounding −3.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.6 % · buybacks/dilution +1.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch DGE: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Diageo (LSE:DGE) Unveils Crown Royal Collaboration, Is The 12% Undervaluation Case Convincing?
- Why Is Diageo (LSE:DGE) Cutting Nearly 2,000 Jobs Under Sir Dave Lewis?
- Diageo (LSE:DGE) On Results And Guinness Spend As Fair Value Still Sits Higher
- FTSE 100 closes down despite strong results from WPP and Diageo
Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 94 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,303 | ¥1,238 | −5% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥71.89 | ¥48.44 | −33% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥116.39 | ¥185.80 | +60% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €63.20 | €76.13 | +20% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥84.50 | ¥149.17 | +77% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $28.72 | $27.69 | −4% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,528 | ₹285.39 | −81% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4650 SGD | 0.7000 SGD | +51% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥39.59 | ¥27.82 | −30% |
| Anhui Gujing Distillery Co 000596 | ¥93.90 | ¥141.00 | +50% |
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