Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd (600809) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 139B CNY (≈ $20.7B) · ISIN CNE000000DH5
What is Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd really worth?
A solid business, trading 34% below our fair value of ¥185.80.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price +1.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (74/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥127.97). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥127.97 to ¥359.89). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥105.08 – ¥365.73 · fair‑value band ¥127.97 – ¥359.89 · the ¥122.56 price screens below the ¥185.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd (600809) currently trades at ¥122.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥185.80, implying the stock looks roughly 34.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥276.84 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥122.56 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥21.77, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd generated revenue of 37.1B CNY at a net margin of 29.6%. Revenue declined 9.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 6.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥127.97 (bear case) to ¥359.89 (bull case); at ¥122.56, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 52%, 600809 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥1.64 per share, which is 0.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥276.84) versus Asset-Based (¥21.77). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd. produces and sells liquors in China and Internationally. It offers liquors under the Fenjiu, Zhuyeqing, and Xinghuacun names. The company was founded in 1949 and is based in Fenyang, China. Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd. is a subsidiary of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu Group., LTd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd reported revenue of 38.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 20.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +18.0%/yr. Reported net income was 12.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding +23.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +23.5 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 94 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,303 | ¥1,238 | −5% |
| Diageo plc DEO | $92.99 | $73.29 | −21% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥71.89 | ¥48.44 | −33% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €63.20 | €76.13 | +20% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥84.50 | ¥149.17 | +77% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $28.72 | $27.69 | −4% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,528 | ₹285.39 | −81% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4650 SGD | 0.7000 SGD | +51% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥39.59 | ¥27.82 | −30% |
| Anhui Gujing Distillery Co 000596 | ¥93.90 | ¥141.00 | +50% |
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