Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 57.4B CNY (≈ $8.6B) · ISIN CNE100000HB8
What is Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 42% above our fair value of ¥27.82.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated today
Share price −5.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥36.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥37.64 – ¥189.08 · fair‑value band ¥23.06 – ¥36.17 · the ¥39.59 price screens above the ¥27.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304) currently trades at ¥39.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥27.82, implying the stock looks roughly 42.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ¥72.53 per share, and 4 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥39.59 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥10.60, and 13 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd generated revenue of 16.3B CNY at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue declined 26.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 21.7B CNY. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥23.06 (bear case) to ¥36.17 (bull case); at ¥39.59, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at −30%, 002304 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥72.53) versus Earnings-Based (¥10.60). Highest evidence: Owner Earnings (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of Chinese liquor. It offers liquor and wine, including dream blue, sujiu, sky blue, zhenbaofang, ocean blue, yanghe daqu, shuanggou daqu, guijiu, and sidus wine under the Yanghe, Shuang Gou, Noble Wine, and Pear Blossom Village brands.
Full company description
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of Chinese liquor. It offers liquor and wine, including dream blue, sujiu, sky blue, zhenbaofang, ocean blue, yanghe daqu, shuanggou daqu, guijiu, and sidus wine under the Yanghe, Shuang Gou, Noble Wine, and Pear Blossom Village brands. The company was formerly known as Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. in June 2024. Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Suqian, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd reported revenue of 19.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 25.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding −26.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.1 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
002304 screens 42% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →
Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 94 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,303 | ¥1,238 | −5% |
| Diageo plc DEO | $92.99 | $73.29 | −21% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥71.89 | ¥48.44 | −33% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥116.39 | ¥185.80 | +60% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €63.20 | €76.13 | +20% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥84.50 | ¥149.17 | +77% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $28.72 | $27.69 | −4% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,528 | ₹285.39 | −81% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4650 SGD | 0.7000 SGD | +51% |
| Anhui Gujing Distillery Co 000596 | ¥93.90 | ¥141.00 | +50% |
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