Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 286B CNY (≈ $42.7B) · ISIN CNE000000VQ8
What is Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 49% above our fair value of ¥48.44.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −6.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥60.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥70.68 – ¥277.28 · fair‑value band ¥36.33 – ¥60.55 · the ¥71.98 price screens above the ¥48.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858) currently trades at ¥71.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥48.44, implying the stock looks roughly 48.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥199.14 per share, and 10 of the 23 models we run sit above the ¥71.98 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥20.70, and 13 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd generated revenue of 46.3B CNY at a net margin of 27.2%. Revenue grew 33.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 127B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥36.33 (bear case) to ¥60.55 (bull case); at ¥71.98, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at −33%, 000858 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥199.14) versus Asset-Based (¥20.70). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells liquor and wine products and related auxiliary products under the Wuliangye brand in China. The company's Wuliangye products include eighth-generation Wuliangye, 39 -degree Wuliangye, classic Wuliangye, 29 -degree Wuliangye, etc.
Full company description
Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells liquor and wine products and related auxiliary products under the Wuliangye brand in China. The company's Wuliangye products include eighth-generation Wuliangye, 39 -degree Wuliangye, classic Wuliangye, 29 -degree Wuliangye, etc. It also offers other alcoholic beverage products, such as Wuliangchun, Wuliangchun, Wuliangtequ, Jianzhuang, etc. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Xuzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd reported revenue of 40.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 66.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −11.5%/yr. Reported net income was 9.0B CNY in FY2025, compounding −21.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +15.5 % · buybacks/dilution −0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
000858 screens 49% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →
Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 94 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,303 | ¥1,238 | −5% |
| Diageo plc DEO | $92.99 | $73.29 | −21% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥116.39 | ¥185.80 | +60% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €63.20 | €76.13 | +20% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥84.50 | ¥149.17 | +77% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $28.72 | $27.69 | −4% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,528 | ₹285.39 | −81% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4650 SGD | 0.7000 SGD | +51% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥39.59 | ¥27.82 | −30% |
| Anhui Gujing Distillery Co 000596 | ¥93.90 | ¥141.00 | +50% |
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