Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Ltd (000596) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 46.0B CNY (≈ $6.9B) · ISIN CNE000000MD5
What is Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Ltd really worth?
A solid business, trading 28% below our fair value of ¥141.00.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 29, 2026, revised from ¥182.41 to ¥141.00 (−22.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +10.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (¥78.08 to ¥176.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥76.00 – ¥279.11 · fair‑value band ¥78.08 – ¥176.25 · the ¥101.17 price screens below the ¥141.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Ltd (000596) currently trades at ¥101.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥141.00, implying the stock looks roughly 28.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥197.38 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥101.17 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥41.08, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Ltd generated revenue of 17.1B CNY at a net margin of 16.5%. Revenue declined 18.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 15.7B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥78.08 (bear case) to ¥176.25 (bull case); at ¥101.17, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 39%, 000596 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.6361 per share, which is 0.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥197.38) versus Asset-Based (¥41.08). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of distilled wine in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
Full company description
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of distilled wine in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company primarily offers baijiu; and engages in machinery production, advertising, research and development, sewage processing, e-commerce, food testing, and construction activities. It is also involved in the manufacture and sale of glass products; provision of hotel management services; leasing of houses; and wholesale of construction materials, feeds, assistant materials, etc. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in Bozhou, the People's Republic of China. Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Anhui Gujing Group Co., Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Ltd reported revenue of 18.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 13.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was 3.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding +11.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +17.2 % · buybacks/dilution −0.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 94 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,303 | ¥1,238 | −5% |
| Diageo plc DEO | $92.99 | $73.29 | −21% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥71.89 | ¥48.44 | −33% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥116.39 | ¥185.80 | +60% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €63.20 | €76.13 | +20% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥84.50 | ¥149.17 | +77% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $28.72 | $27.69 | −4% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,528 | ₹285.39 | −81% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4650 SGD | 0.7000 SGD | +51% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥39.59 | ¥27.82 | −30% |
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