Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 1.6T CNY (≈ $233B) · ISIN CNE0000018R8
What is Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd really worth?
A strong business, currently priced close to our fair value of ¥1,238.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 9 days ago
Share price +1.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (¥883.12 to ¥1,938) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1,169 – ¥1,945 · fair‑value band ¥883.12 – ¥1,938 · the ¥1,330 price screens above the ¥1,238 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519) currently trades at ¥1,330, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1,238, implying the stock looks roughly 7.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥1,744 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥1,330 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥131.12, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd generated revenue of 172B CNY at a net margin of 48.1%. Revenue grew 6.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 31.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 35.8B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥883.12 (bear case) to ¥1,938 (bull case); at ¥1,330, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at −7%, 600519 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥9.57 per share, which is 0.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥1,744) versus Asset-Based (¥131.12). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 79 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells liquor products in China and internationally. The company offers liquor and soy sauce products under the Kweichow Moutai, Moutai Wangzi liquor, Moutai 1935 liquor, Han Jiang liquor, and Lai Mao liquor brands.
Full company description
Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells liquor products in China and internationally. The company offers liquor and soy sauce products under the Kweichow Moutai, Moutai Wangzi liquor, Moutai 1935 liquor, Han Jiang liquor, and Lai Mao liquor brands. It also engages in the production and sale of beverage, food, and packaging materials; development of anti-counterfeiting technology; research and development of information industry related products; operation and management of hotel, accommodation, catering, entertainment, bathing, and parking lot services; and provision of vehicle transportation and maintenance, and value-added telecommunication services. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Renhuai, China. Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China Kweichow Moutai Distillery(Group)Co,.Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd reported revenue of 172B CNY in FY2025 versus 94.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was 82.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding +11.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +18.7 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 94 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diageo plc DEO | $92.99 | $73.29 | −21% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥71.89 | ¥48.44 | −33% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥116.39 | ¥185.80 | +60% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €63.20 | €76.13 | +20% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥84.50 | ¥149.17 | +77% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $28.72 | $27.69 | −4% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,528 | ₹285.39 | −81% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4650 SGD | 0.7000 SGD | +51% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥39.59 | ¥27.82 | −30% |
| Anhui Gujing Distillery Co 000596 | ¥93.90 | ¥141.00 | +50% |
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