Kweichow Moutai Co (600519) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 1.6T CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +7.3% over the past month.
A strong business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (¥883.12 to ¥1,938) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1,169 – ¥1,945 · fair‑value band ¥883.12 – ¥1,938 · the ¥1,342 price screens above the ¥1,238 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Kweichow Moutai Co (600519) currently trades at ¥1,342, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1,238, implying the stock looks roughly 7.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Kweichow Moutai Co generated revenue of 172B CNY at a net margin of 48.1%. Revenue grew 6.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 31.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 35.8B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥883.12 (bear case) to ¥1,938 (bull case); at ¥1,342, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -8%, 600519 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥1,744) versus Asset-Based (¥131.12). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 79 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells liquor products in China and internationally. The company offers liquor and soy sauce products under the Kweichow Moutai, Moutai Wangzi liquor, Moutai 1935 liquor, Han Jiang liquor, and Lai Mao liquor brands.
Full company description
Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells liquor products in China and internationally. The company offers liquor and soy sauce products under the Kweichow Moutai, Moutai Wangzi liquor, Moutai 1935 liquor, Han Jiang liquor, and Lai Mao liquor brands. It also engages in the production and sale of beverage, food, and packaging materials; development of anti-counterfeiting technology; research and development of information industry related products; operation and management of hotel, accommodation, catering, entertainment, bathing, and parking lot services; and provision of vehicle transportation and maintenance, and value-added telecommunication services. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Renhuai, China. Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China Kweichow Moutai Distillery(Group)Co,.Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kweichow Moutai Co reported revenue of ¥172B in FY2025 versus ¥94.2B in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥82.3B in FY2025, compounding +11.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +18.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diageo plc DEO | $93.96 | $73.29 | -22% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥75.28 | ¥48.44 | -36% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥122.32 | ¥185.80 | +52% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €67.96 | €76.13 | +12% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥91.09 | ¥149.17 | +64% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $28.40 | $27.69 | -3% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,515 | ₹381.12 | -75% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4700 SGD | 0.7000 SGD | +49% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥41.62 | ¥27.82 | -33% |
| Anhui Gujing Distillery Co 000596 | ¥99.18 | ¥182.41 | +84% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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