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Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 122B CNY (≈ $18.3B) · ISIN CNE000000GF2

What is Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd really worth?

LL Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd 000568 · SHE
Price¥79.92
Fair Value¥149.17
Upside+86.7%
Quality70/100

A solid business, trading 46% below our fair value of ¥149.17.

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Strengths

Highly profitable · 40.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (12/15)
Wide moat 85/100

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +9.1 %/yr)

For context

·7.23% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range ¥89.70 – ¥230.43

Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

Share price −10.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥89.70). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥89.70 to ¥230.43) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥244.69 ¥74.91 Fair Value ¥149.17 Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥74.91 – ¥244.69 · fair‑value band ¥89.70 – ¥230.43 · the ¥79.92 price screens below the ¥149.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568) currently trades at ¥79.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥149.17, implying the stock looks roughly 46.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥177.26 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥79.92 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥22.66, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd generated revenue of 24.4B CNY at a net margin of 40.8%. Revenue declined 14.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 27.3B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥89.70 (bear case) to ¥230.43 (bull case); at ¥79.92, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 87%, 000568 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.6598 per share, which is 0.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF ¥67.69 ¥110.18 ¥218.57 76
Growth DCF ¥66.20 ¥118.12 ¥201.00 76
EPV ¥76.91 ¥86.93 ¥95.70 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥67.69 ¥110.18 ¥218.57 76
Owner Earnings ¥111.83 ¥213.14 ¥409.87 72
5Y Revenue Exit ¥45.13 ¥65.20 ¥92.81 73
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥97.62 ¥182.61 ¥297.23 73
5Y P/E Exit ¥109.63 ¥209.46 ¥333.10 69
10Y Revenue Exit ¥51.23 ¥73.99 ¥110.52 66
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥87.95 ¥164.21 ¥296.01 65
10Y P/E Exit ¥96.19 ¥184.85 ¥328.56 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥50.04 ¥299.30 ¥417.09 63
Lynch FV ¥85.25 ¥121.78 ¥158.31 61
PEG = 1.0 ¥85.25 ¥121.78 ¥158.31 57
EPV ¥76.91 ¥86.93 ¥95.70 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥115.89 ¥154.52 ¥193.16 63
P/S Multiple ¥20.98 ¥27.97 ¥34.96 58
P/B Multiple ¥93.82 ¥125.09 ¥156.36 55
EV/EBIT ¥138.05 ¥178.47 ¥218.90 66
EV/EBITDA ¥114.77 ¥147.43 ¥180.10 67
EV/Revenue ¥35.15 ¥43.01 ¥50.88 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥16.91 ¥22.66 ¥33.82 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥66.20 ¥118.12 ¥201.00 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥45.13 ¥64.82 ¥92.49 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥49.06 ¥65.50 ¥310.57 64
ROIC Compounder ¥87.01 ¥112.15 ¥144.81 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥124.08 ¥177.26 ¥230.43 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥177.26) versus Asset-Based (¥22.66). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 11.8
P/S ratio 4.98 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) ¥6.75 price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.8
Dividend yield 7.2% payout 85.6%
Net margin 42.1% FY2025
Return on equity 19.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 25.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 60.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 24.4B CNY TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −14.2% 3y avg +0.8%
EPS growth (YoY) −19.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 5.2B CNY FY2025
Net cash 27.3B CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 70/100

Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33

Profitability 71
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 54
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Luzhou Laojiao Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells alcoholic products in China and internationally.

Full company description

Luzhou Laojiao Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells alcoholic products in China and internationally. The company offers liquor products; and cellar-aged, red, and health wine under the Guojiao 1573, Luzhou Laojiao Special Liquor, Centennial Luzhou Laojiao Cellar-aged Liquor, Luzhou Laojiao Touqu, Luzhou Laojiao Black Cap, Gaoguang, Luzhou Laojiao 1952, Luzhou Laojiao Tequ, Touqu, and Heigai brands. It is also involved in the sales of fruit wine; cultivation and sale of agricultural products; import and export of food and alcoholic beverages; and technology and business development services. In addition, the company provides support services comprising contact district, advertising and procurement platforms, online consultation, and service platforms. Luzhou Laojiao Co.,Ltd was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Luzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd reported revenue of 25.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 20.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was 10.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +8.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 74/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
25.7B CNY
Latest YoY
−17.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (34Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+19.6% (12.4 + 7.2)
Revenue +5.7%/yr
FY21 20.6B CNY
FY22 25.1B CNY
FY23 30.2B CNY
FY24 31.2B CNY
FY25 25.7B CNY
Net income +8.0%/yr
FY21 8.0B CNY
FY22 10.4B CNY
FY23 13.2B CNY
FY24 13.5B CNY
FY25 10.8B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024) +22.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +15.4 %

of which total revenue +16.0 % · buybacks/dilution −0.5 %

EBIT margin +5.9 %
Tax rate −0.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000568

Peer Group

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 94 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +87% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Return on assets 12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 41% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 60% · Top 25%
Revenue growth −14% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.2% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.05× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 2.46× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 5.01× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 3.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.91× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 15
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST78 · sector 19
HEALTH97 · sector 95
DIVIDEND100 · sector 60

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 ¥1,303 ¥1,238 −5%
Diageo plc DEO $92.99 $73.29 −21%
Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 ¥71.89 ¥48.44 −33%
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 ¥116.39 ¥185.80 +60%
Pernod Ricard SA RI €63.20 €76.13 +20%
Brown-Forman Corporation BFA $28.72 $27.69 −4%
United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR ₹1,528 ₹285.39 −81%
Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 0.4650 SGD 0.7000 SGD +51%
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 ¥39.59 ¥27.82 −30%
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co 000596 ¥93.90 ¥141.00 +50%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥149.17 versus a price of ¥79.92, about +87% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000568?
Our model-based fair value for Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd is ¥149.17 (as of Aug 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥79.92.
What is the quality score of 000568?
Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 24.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 000568?
The net profit margin of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd is about 40.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 40.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.23% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 19, 2026).
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