Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 122B CNY (≈ $18.3B) · ISIN CNE000000GF2
What is Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd really worth?
A solid business, trading 46% below our fair value of ¥149.17.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −10.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥89.70). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range (¥89.70 to ¥230.43) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥74.91 – ¥244.69 · fair‑value band ¥89.70 – ¥230.43 · the ¥79.92 price screens below the ¥149.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568) currently trades at ¥79.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥149.17, implying the stock looks roughly 46.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥177.26 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥79.92 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥22.66, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd generated revenue of 24.4B CNY at a net margin of 40.8%. Revenue declined 14.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 27.3B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥89.70 (bear case) to ¥230.43 (bull case); at ¥79.92, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 87%, 000568 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.6598 per share, which is 0.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥177.26) versus Asset-Based (¥22.66). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Luzhou Laojiao Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells alcoholic products in China and internationally.
Full company description
Luzhou Laojiao Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells alcoholic products in China and internationally. The company offers liquor products; and cellar-aged, red, and health wine under the Guojiao 1573, Luzhou Laojiao Special Liquor, Centennial Luzhou Laojiao Cellar-aged Liquor, Luzhou Laojiao Touqu, Luzhou Laojiao Black Cap, Gaoguang, Luzhou Laojiao 1952, Luzhou Laojiao Tequ, Touqu, and Heigai brands. It is also involved in the sales of fruit wine; cultivation and sale of agricultural products; import and export of food and alcoholic beverages; and technology and business development services. In addition, the company provides support services comprising contact district, advertising and procurement platforms, online consultation, and service platforms. Luzhou Laojiao Co.,Ltd was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Luzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd reported revenue of 25.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 20.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was 10.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +8.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +16.0 % · buybacks/dilution −0.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 94 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,303 | ¥1,238 | −5% |
| Diageo plc DEO | $92.99 | $73.29 | −21% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥71.89 | ¥48.44 | −33% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥116.39 | ¥185.80 | +60% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €63.20 | €76.13 | +20% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $28.72 | $27.69 | −4% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,528 | ₹285.39 | −81% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4650 SGD | 0.7000 SGD | +51% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥39.59 | ¥27.82 | −30% |
| Anhui Gujing Distillery Co 000596 | ¥93.90 | ¥141.00 | +50% |
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