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Diageo PLC ADR (DEO) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $54.0B · ISIN US25243Q2057

What is Diageo PLC ADR really worth?

DP Diageo PLC ADR logo Diageo PLC ADR DEO · US
Price$90.68
Fair Value$73.29
Upside−19.2%
Quality51/100

A solid business, but trading 24% above our fair value of $73.29.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 12.2% net margin
✓Wide moat 75/100

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +11.5 %/yr)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Weak on balance sheet: 6 out of 100

For context

·3.66% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $41.44 – $95.28

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Share price +3.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($41.44 to $95.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$196.06 $71.75 Fair Value $73.29 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $71.75 – $196.06 · fair‑value band $41.44 – $95.28 · the $90.68 price screens above the $73.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Diageo PLC ADR (DEO) currently trades at $90.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $73.29, implying the stock looks roughly 23.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $73.29 per share, and 3 of the 25 models we run sit above the $90.68 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.37, and 22 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Diageo PLC ADR generated revenue of $19.8B at a net margin of 12.2%. Revenue declined 4.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.7%. Net debt stands at $22.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $41.44 (bear case) to $95.28 (bull case); at $90.68, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at −19%, DEO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.01 per share, which is 1.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $18.57 $42.72 $77.58 76
Growth DCF $19.98 $42.22 $72.85 75
5Y EBITDA Exit $44.89 $94.02 $149.56 73
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $18.57 $42.72 $77.58 76
Owner Earnings $14.21 $36.33 $68.27 72
5Y Revenue Exit $8.27 $28.29 $52.86 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $44.89 $94.02 $149.56 73
5Y P/E Exit $22.72 $54.23 $85.87 68
10Y Revenue Exit $10.52 $29.23 $52.34 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $34.59 $73.87 $123.40 66
10Y P/E Exit $20.69 $46.84 $76.59 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $28.80 $71.55 $92.76 65
PEG = 1.0 $13.01 $18.59 $24.17 57
EPV $23.66 $33.18 $41.52 73
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $37.96 $70.63 $115.21 66
DDM Multi-Stage $37.96 $57.34 $78.40 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $66.69 $88.93 $111.16 63
P/S Multiple $43.70 $58.27 $72.84 58
P/B Multiple $53.99 $71.99 $89.98 55
EV/EBIT $65.93 $99.07 $132.22 65
EV/EBITDA $72.67 $108.06 $143.45 66
EV/Revenue $4.74 $21.13 $37.52 48
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $9.97 $13.37 $19.95 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $19.98 $42.22 $72.85 75
Rev-Margin DCF $8.27 $28.91 $51.45 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income $25.91 $31.20 $74.50 69
ROIC Compounder $24.32 $37.84 $53.78 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $51.30 $73.29 $95.28 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($73.29) versus Asset-Based ($13.37). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 20.9
P/S ratio 2.44 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $4.33 price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.9
Dividend yield 3.7% payout 76.7%
Net margin 11.6% FY2025
Return on equity 19.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 11.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 31.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $19.8B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −4.0% 3y avg +6.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +2.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $2.7B FY2025
Net debt $22.2B FY2025 · ≈ 8.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 51
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 91
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Diageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, and Africa.

Full company description

Diageo plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, marketing, and distribution of alcoholic beverages in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, and Africa. It offers beer, scotch, gin, vodka, rum, liqueur, raki, wine, Irish and Canadian whisky, US and Indian whisky, Chinese whisky, cachaça, tequila, brandy, and Chinese white spirit beverages. The company also provides ready-to-drink and non-alcoholic beverages. Its principal brands include Johnnie Walker, Don Julio, Guinness, Crown Royal, Smirnoff, Baileys, Captain Morgan, Casamigos, Shui Jing Fang, and McDowell's. The company was formerly known as Guinness plc and changed its name to Diageo plc in February 1998. The company was incorporated in 1886 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Diageo PLC ADR reported revenue of $20.2B in FY2025 versus $12.7B in FY2021, a compound +12.3%/yr. Reported net income was $2.4B in FY2025, compounding −3.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 88/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$20.2B
Latest YoY
−0.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (28Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+3.4% (−0.3 + 3.7)
Revenue +12.3%/yr
FY21 $12.7B
FY22 $17.0B
FY23 $16.2B
FY24 $20.3B
FY25 $20.2B
Net income −3.0%/yr
FY21 $2.7B
FY22 $3.5B
FY23 $3.5B
FY24 $3.9B
FY25 $2.4B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +13.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +16.3 %

of which total revenue +6.3 % · buybacks/dilution +9.4 %

EBIT margin −0.2 %
Tax rate −1.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

DEO screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →

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Diageo PLC ADR · Fair Value
$73.29 −24%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Diageo PLC ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DEO

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 94 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside +11% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 31% · Top 25%
Revenue growth −4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.7% · Above median
Debt / equity 1.88× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 4.87× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.73× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 20.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 11.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.80× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE48 · sector 15
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST79 · sector 19
HEALTH6 · sector 95
DIVIDEND73 · sector 60

Insider activity: 25/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

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10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 ¥1,303 ¥1,238 −5%
Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 ¥71.89 ¥48.44 −33%
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 ¥116.39 ¥185.80 +60%
Pernod Ricard SA RI €63.20 €76.13 +20%
Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 ¥84.50 ¥149.17 +77%
Brown-Forman Corporation BFA $28.72 $27.69 −4%
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Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 0.4650 SGD 0.7000 SGD +51%
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Anhui Gujing Distillery Co 000596 ¥93.90 ¥141.00 +50%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Diageo PLC ADR (DEO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $73.29 versus a price of $90.68, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DEO?
Our model-based fair value for Diageo PLC ADR is $73.29 (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $90.68.
What is the quality score of DEO?
Diageo PLC ADR has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Diageo PLC ADR (DEO)?
Diageo PLC ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of DEO?
The net profit margin of Diageo PLC ADR is about 12.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 12.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Diageo PLC ADR pay a dividend?
Diageo PLC ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.66% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).
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