Carmila SA (CARM) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · FR · Market cap €2.3B · ISIN FR0010828137
What is Carmila SA really worth?
A solid business, trading 31% below our fair value of €22.78.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Share price −8.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€17.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.68 – €17.15 · fair‑value band €17.08 – €28.48 · the €15.66 price screens below the €22.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
Analysis
Carmila SA (CARM) currently trades at €15.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €22.78, implying the stock looks roughly 31.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €34.74 per share, and 15 of the 16 models we run sit above the €15.66 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €16.44, and 1 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Carmila SA generated revenue of €566M at a net margin of 32.7%. Revenue declined 1.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.5%. Net debt stands at €2.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €17.08 (bear case) to €28.48 (bull case); at €15.66, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at 45%, CARM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.8933 per share, which is 3.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€34.74) versus Asset-Based (€16.44). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Carmila S.A. is a leading European commercial real estate company, with 250 shopping centres across France, Spain and Italy. As of December 31, 2025, Carmila's portfolio was valued at 6.7 billion euros. Welcoming over 600 million visitors each year, Carmila creates local life hubs, vibrant places that are essential to everyday life.
Full company description
Carmila S.A. is a leading European commercial real estate company, with 250 shopping centres across France, Spain and Italy. As of December 31, 2025, Carmila's portfolio was valued at 6.7 billion euros. Welcoming over 600 million visitors each year, Carmila creates local life hubs, vibrant places that are essential to everyday life. Anchored by Carrefour hypermarkets, these centres act as catalysts for local commerce by integrating shopping, healthcare services, events, dining and leisure. Carmila is listed on Euronext Paris, Compartment A, under the ticker symbol CARM and benefits from the French listed real estate investment trust regime. The Group is a member of SBF 120 and CAC Mid 60 indices. Carmila S.A. was established on March 6, 1991 and incorporated in France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carmila SA reported revenue of €574M in FY2025 versus €444M in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was €185M in FY2025, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +20.6 % · buybacks/dilution −10.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Carmila: Information Concerning the Total Number of Voting Rights and Share
- CORRECTING and REPLACING: CARMILA: Information Concerning the Total Number of Voting Rights and Share, Provided Pursuant to Article L.233-8
- CORRECTING and REPLACING: Carmila: Information Concerning the Total Number of Voting Rights and Share, Provided Pursuant to Article L.233-8
- Carmila: 2026 Half-Year Financial Report Available
Peer Group
REIT - Retail · 94 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Property Group SPG | $212.32 | $84.26 | −60% |
| Realty Income Corporation O | $61.98 | $30.45 | −51% |
| Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE URW | €103.40 | €98.09 | −5% |
| Kimco Realty Corporation KIM | $23.71 | $12.49 | −47% |
| CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) C38U | 2.38 SGD | 0.9100 SGD | −62% |
| Scentre Group SCG | A$3.56 | A$3.34 | −6% |
| Regency Centers Corporation REG | $75.92 | $33.37 | −56% |
| Link Real Estate Investment Trust (Link REIT) 0823 | HK$39.76 | HK$41.98 | +6% |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT | $116.75 | $41.47 | −64% |
| Brixmor Property Group BRX | $29.50 | $12.34 | −58% |
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