Carmila S.A (CARM) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · FR · Market cap €2.3B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +0.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 37% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€17.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.68 – €17.15 · fair‑value band €17.08 – €28.48 · the €16.58 price screens below the €22.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Carmila S.A (CARM) currently trades at €16.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €22.78, implying the stock looks roughly 37.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Carmila S.A generated revenue of €566M at a net margin of 32.7%. Revenue declined 1.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.5%. Net debt stands at €2.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €17.08 (bear case) to €28.48 (bull case); at €16.58, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at 37%, CARM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€34.74) versus Asset-Based (€16.44). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Carmila S.A. is a leading European commercial real estate company, with 250 shopping centres across France, Spain and Italy. As of December 31, 2025, Carmila's portfolio was valued at 6.7 billion euros. Welcoming over 600 million visitors each year, Carmila creates local life hubs, vibrant places that are essential to everyday life.
Full company description
Carmila S.A. is a leading European commercial real estate company, with 250 shopping centres across France, Spain and Italy. As of December 31, 2025, Carmila's portfolio was valued at 6.7 billion euros. Welcoming over 600 million visitors each year, Carmila creates local life hubs, vibrant places that are essential to everyday life. Anchored by Carrefour hypermarkets, these centres act as catalysts for local commerce by integrating shopping, healthcare services, events, dining and leisure. Carmila is listed on Euronext Paris, Compartment A, under the ticker symbol CARM and benefits from the French listed real estate investment trust regime. The Group is a member of SBF 120 and CAC Mid 60 indices. Carmila S.A. was established on March 6, 1991 and incorporated in France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carmila S.A reported revenue of €574M in FY2025 versus €444M in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was €185M in FY2025, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +20.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −12.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch CARM: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Carmila: 2026 Half-Year Financial Report Available
- Carmila: 2026 H1 Results
- Carmila: Acquisition of Grand Quetigny
- Carmila: Resources Devoted to the Liquidity Contract as of 30 June 2026
Peer Group
REIT - Retail · 98 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Property Group SPG | $220.56 | $84.26 | -62% |
| Realty Income Corporation O | $62.59 | $30.45 | -51% |
| Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE URW | €103.40 | €98.09 | -5% |
| Kimco Realty Corporation KIM | $24.18 | $12.49 | -48% |
| CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) C38U | 2.49 SGD | 0.9100 SGD | -63% |
| Scentre Group SCG | A$3.79 | A$3.34 | -12% |
| Regency Centers Corporation REG | $75.74 | $33.37 | -56% |
| Link Real Estate Investment Trust (Link REIT) 0823 | HK$38.44 | HK$41.98 | +9% |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT | $117.21 | $41.47 | -65% |
| Brixmor Property Group BRX | $29.73 | $12.34 | -58% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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