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CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · SG · Market cap 18.8B SGD (≈ $14.9B) · ISIN SG1M51904654

What is CapitaLand Mall Trust really worth?

CM CapitaLand Mall Trust C38U · SG
Price2.34 SGD
Fair Value0.9100 SGD
Upside−61.1%
Quality56/100

A solid business, but trading 157% above our fair value of 0.9100 SGD.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +16.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 73.7% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 66/100

Risks

!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)

For context

·4.54% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range 0.9100 SGD – 1.81 SGD

Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Share price −5.6% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1.81 SGD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (0.9100 SGD to 1.81 SGD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

2.49 SGD 1.41 SGD Fair Value 0.9100 SGD Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 1.41 SGD – 2.49 SGD · fair‑value band 0.9100 SGD – 1.81 SGD · the 2.34 SGD price screens above the 0.9100 SGD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U) currently trades at 2.34 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.9100 SGD, implying the stock looks roughly 157.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 1.70 SGD per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the 2.34 SGD price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 0.4200 SGD, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, CapitaLand Mall Trust generated revenue of 1.6B SGD at a net margin of 57.9%. Revenue grew 4.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.9%. Net debt stands at 9.8B SGD. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 0.9100 SGD (bear case) to 1.81 SGD (bull case); at 2.34 SGD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −61%, C38U screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 0.0363 SGD per share, which is 4.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence 1.64 SGD 1.70 SGD 1.71 SGD 76
5Y EBITDA Exit — 0.7600 SGD 1.67 SGD 72
FCF DCF 0.0600 SGD 0.8500 SGD 2.12 SGD 69
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 0.0600 SGD 0.8500 SGD 2.12 SGD 69
5Y Revenue Exit — 0.4200 SGD 1.19 SGD 69
5Y EBITDA Exit — 0.7600 SGD 1.67 SGD 72
10Y Revenue Exit — 0.4400 SGD 1.25 SGD 64
10Y EBITDA Exit 0.0100 SGD 0.6800 SGD 1.62 SGD 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 0.8700 SGD 1.82 SGD 2.88 SGD 66
DDM Multi-Stage 0.8700 SGD 1.53 SGD 1.91 SGD 66
Multiples
P/S Multiple 1.00 SGD 1.34 SGD 1.67 SGD 58
P/B Multiple 1.52 SGD 2.02 SGD 2.53 SGD 55
EV/EBIT 0.4500 SGD 0.9900 SGD 1.53 SGD 62
EV/EBITDA 0.0900 SGD 0.5000 SGD 0.9200 SGD 59
EV/Revenue — 0.1100 SGD 0.4900 SGD 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 1.03 SGD 1.39 SGD 2.07 SGD 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 0.0700 SGD 0.8400 SGD 2.08 SGD 68
Rev-Margin DCF — 0.4200 SGD 1.12 SGD 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence 1.64 SGD 1.70 SGD 1.71 SGD 76

Widest divergence: Economic Profit (1.70 SGD) versus Growth DCF (0.4200 SGD). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 18.0
P/S ratio 10.4 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 0.1300 SGD price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.0
Dividend yield 4.5% payout 81.8%
Net margin 57.9% FY2025
Return on equity 5.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 66.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 1.6B SGD TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.7% 3y avg +3.9%
EPS growth (YoY) −11.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 811M SGD FY2025
Net debt 9.8B SGD FY2025 · ≈ 12.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 86
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 49
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 43
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) is the first and largest real estate investment trust (REIT) listed on Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (SGX-ST). CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust has a market capitalization of US14.2 billion dollars or S18.2 billion dollars as at 31 December 2025.

Full company description

CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) is the first and largest real estate investment trust (REIT) listed on Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (SGX-ST). CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust has a market capitalization of US14.2 billion dollars or S18.2 billion dollars as at 31 December 2025. It debuted on SGX-ST as CapitaLand Mall Trust in July 2002 and was renamed CICT in November 2020 following the merger with CapitaLand Commercial Trust. As the largest proxy for Singapore commercial real estate, CICT owns and invests in quality income-producing assets primarily used for commercial (including retail and/or office) purposes, located predominantly in Singapore. CICT's portfolio comprises 20 properties in Singapore, two properties in Frankfurt, Germany, and three properties in Sydney, Australia with a total property value of S27.0 billion dollars or US21.0 billion dollar based on valuations of its proportionate interests in the portfolio as at 31 December 2025. CICT is managed by CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust Management Limited (CICTML or the Manager), a wholly owned subsidiary of CapitaLand Investment Limited, a leading global real asset manager with a strong Asia foothold. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust was established in October 29, 2001 and incorporated in Singapore.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CapitaLand Mall Trust reported revenue of 1.6B SGD in FY2025 versus 1.3B SGD in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was 937M SGD in FY2025, compounding −3.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.6B SGD
Latest YoY
+2.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (23Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+22.6% (18.1 + 4.5)
Revenue +5.5%/yr
FY21 1.3B SGD
FY22 1.4B SGD
FY23 1.6B SGD
FY24 1.6B SGD
FY25 1.6B SGD
Net income −3.5%/yr
FY21 1.1B SGD
FY22 723M SGD
FY23 863M SGD
FY24 934M SGD
FY25 937M SGD

C38U screens 157% overvalued. Compare with Simon Property Group →

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CapitaLand Mall Trust · Fair Value
0.9100 SGD −157%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CapitaLand Mall Trust Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/C38U

Peer Group

REIT - Retail · 94 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Below median
Fair Value upside −61% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 74% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 67% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.5% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.57× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.91× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 8.86× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 18.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 21.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 7.20× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 15
FUTURE38 · sector 22
PAST30 · sector 30
HEALTH71 · sector 67
DIVIDEND91 · sector 100

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Simon Property Group SPG $212.32 $84.26 −60%
Realty Income Corporation O $61.98 $30.45 −51%
Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE URW €103.40 €98.09 −5%
Kimco Realty Corporation KIM $23.71 $12.49 −47%
Scentre Group SCG A$3.56 A$3.34 −6%
Regency Centers Corporation REG $75.92 $33.37 −56%
Link Real Estate Investment Trust (Link REIT) 0823 HK$39.76 HK$41.98 +6%
Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT $116.75 $41.47 −64%
Brixmor Property Group BRX $29.50 $12.34 −58%
Agree Realty Corporation ADC $73.20 $38.85 −47%

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Frequently asked questions

Is CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.9100 SGD versus a price of 2.34 SGD, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of C38U?
Our model-based fair value for CapitaLand Mall Trust is 0.9100 SGD (as of Aug 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2.34 SGD.
What is the quality score of C38U?
CapitaLand Mall Trust has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of CapitaLand Mall Trust (C38U)?
CapitaLand Mall Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B SGD (latest available figure, as of Aug 28, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of C38U?
The net profit margin of CapitaLand Mall Trust is about 57.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 57.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does CapitaLand Mall Trust pay a dividend?
CapitaLand Mall Trust currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.54% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 28, 2026).
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