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Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · US · Market cap $8.9B · ISIN US0084921008

What is Agree Realty Corporation really worth?

AR Agree Realty Corporation logo Agree Realty Corporation ADC · US
Price$72.73
Fair Value$38.85
Upside−46.6%
Quality41/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 87% above our fair value of $38.85.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 29.3% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +23.6 %/yr)
!Trails peers (3/15)
!Moderate moat 62/100
!Weak on past: 15 out of 100

For context

·4.27% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $38.17 – $38.85

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Share price −4.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($38.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The models converge in a tight band ($38.17 to $38.85), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$81.12 $47.85 Fair Value $38.85 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $47.85 – $81.12 · fair‑value band $38.17 – $38.85 · the $72.73 price screens above the $38.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) currently trades at $72.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.85, implying the stock looks roughly 87.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $85.42 per share, and 4 of the 15 models we run sit above the $72.73 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $28.92, and 11 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Agree Realty Corporation generated revenue of $750M at a net margin of 29.3%. Revenue grew 18.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. Net debt stands at $3.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $38.17 (bear case) to $38.85 (bull case); at $72.73, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −47%, ADC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence $37.90 $37.36 $32.10 76
FCF DCF $34.30 $75.49 $187.83 72
Growth DCF $31.52 $85.42 $183.30 72
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $34.30 $75.49 $187.83 72
5Y Revenue Exit $9.83 $36.42 $84.65 65
5Y EBITDA Exit $35.65 $92.80 $191.89 69
10Y Revenue Exit $16.17 $50.33 $90.96 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $34.87 $97.31 $209.23 62
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $25.45 $50.72 $76.80 67
DDM Multi-Stage $25.45 $43.83 $53.54 67
Multiples
P/S Multiple $21.69 $28.92 $36.16 58
P/B Multiple $21.69 $28.92 $36.16 55
EV/EBIT $19.47 $35.06 $50.64 63
EV/EBITDA $38.11 $59.91 $81.71 66
EV/Revenue — $9.55 $20.60 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $26.11 $34.98 $52.21 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $31.52 $85.42 $183.30 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence $37.90 $37.36 $32.10 76

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($85.42) versus Multiples ($28.92). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 39.2
P/S ratio 11.2 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.85 price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.2
Dividend yield 4.3% payout 168%
Net margin 28.4% FY2025
Return on equity 3.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 48.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $750M TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +18.7% 3y avg +18.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +19.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $504M FY2025
Net debt $3.3B FY2025 · ≈ 6.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 27
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 99
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 38
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust. The Firm is Rethinking Retail through the acquisition and development of properties net leased to industry-leading, omni-channel retail tenants.

Full company description

Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust. The Firm is Rethinking Retail through the acquisition and development of properties net leased to industry-leading, omni-channel retail tenants. As of December 31, 2025, the Company owned and operated a portfolio of 2,674 properties, located in all 50 states and containing approximately 55.5 million square feet of gross leasable area. The Company's common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Agree Realty Corporation was incorporated in 1971 and is based in Royal Oak, United States.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Agree Realty Corporation reported revenue of $718M in FY2025 versus $339M in FY2021, a compound +20.6%/yr. Reported net income was $204M in FY2025, compounding +13.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$718M
Latest YoY
+16.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (31Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+4.5% (0.2 + 4.3)
Revenue +20.6%/yr
FY21 $339M
FY22 $430M
FY23 $537M
FY24 $617M
FY25 $718M
Net income +13.7%/yr
FY21 $122M
FY22 $152M
FY23 $170M
FY24 $189M
FY25 $204M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +0.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.2 %

of which total revenue +27.2 % · buybacks/dilution −17.3 %

EBIT margin −1.7 %
Tax rate +1.5 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −4.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

ADC screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Simon Property Group →

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Agree Realty Corporation · Fair Value
$38.85 −87%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Agree Realty Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADC

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

REIT - Retail · 94 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −47% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 29% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 49% · Below median
Revenue growth 19% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.3% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.53× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 39.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.42× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 11.85× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 17.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 18.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 0.13× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 15
FUTURE94 · sector 22
PAST15 · sector 30
HEALTH74 · sector 67
DIVIDEND85 · sector 100

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 66/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Simon Property Group SPG $212.32 $84.26 −60%
Realty Income Corporation O $61.98 $30.45 −51%
Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE URW €103.40 €98.09 −5%
Kimco Realty Corporation KIM $23.71 $12.49 −47%
CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) C38U 2.38 SGD 0.9100 SGD −62%
Scentre Group SCG A$3.56 A$3.34 −6%
Regency Centers Corporation REG $75.92 $33.37 −56%
Link Real Estate Investment Trust (Link REIT) 0823 HK$39.76 HK$41.98 +6%
Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT $116.75 $41.47 −64%
Brixmor Property Group BRX $29.50 $12.34 −58%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.85 versus a price of $72.73, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ADC?
Our model-based fair value for Agree Realty Corporation is $38.85 (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $72.73.
What is the quality score of ADC?
Agree Realty Corporation has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)?
Agree Realty Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $750M (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ADC?
The net profit margin of Agree Realty Corporation is about 29.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 29.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Agree Realty Corporation pay a dividend?
Agree Realty Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.27% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).
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