BHP Group (BHPN) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · MX · Market cap 3.6T MXN
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 942.42 MXN to 745.46 MXN (−20.9%) since Jul 13, 2026. Share price −8.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (969.06 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (527.65 MXN to 969.06 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 740.82 MXN – 1,565 MXN · fair‑value band 527.65 MXN – 969.06 MXN · the 1,425 MXN price screens above the 745.46 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
BHP Group (BHPN) currently trades at 1,425 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 745.46 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 47.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, BHP Group generated revenue of 54.0B MXN at a net margin of 19.0%. Revenue grew 10.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.7%. Net debt stands at 9.7B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 527.65 MXN (bear case) to 969.06 MXN (bull case); at 1,425 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -32% fair-value upside, at -48%, BHPN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (800.29 MXN) versus Asset-Based (178.71 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments.
Full company description
BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments. It also engages in the mining of copper, uranium, gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, silver, iron ore, cobalt, and metallurgical and energy coal. In addition, the company is involved in the mining, smelting, and refining of nickel, as well as potash development activities. Further, it provides towing, freight, marketing and trading, marketing support, finance, administrative, and other services. BHP Group Limited was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BHP Group reported revenue of 51.3B MXN in FY2025 versus 60.8B MXN in FY2021, a compound −4.2%/yr. Reported net income was 9.0B MXN in FY2025, compounding −5.5%/yr from FY2021.
BHPN screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Rio Tinto Group →
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$179.43 | A$81.76 | -54% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 222.38 MXN | 172.99 MXN | -22% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.89 | $8.95 | -40% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥19.00 | ¥19.80 | +4% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥70.43 | ¥9.55 | -86% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹584.60 | ₹501.98 | -14% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | -74% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | -13% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥38.36 | ¥25.99 | -32% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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