Vale SA ADR (VALE) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $62.6B · ISIN US91912E1055
What is Vale SA ADR really worth?
Vale SA ADR
VALE · US
A solid business, but trading 71% above our fair value of $8.95.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price +3.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($6.61 to $12.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.51 – $17.82 · fair‑value band $6.61 – $12.34 · the $15.31 price screens above the $8.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Vale SA ADR (VALE) currently trades at $15.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.95, implying the stock looks roughly 71.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $11.23 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the $15.31 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.29, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Revenue grew 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.8%. Net debt stands at $12.0B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 23.2. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.61 (bear case) to $12.34 (bull case); at $15.31, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 86% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −42%, VALE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($11.23) versus Asset-Based ($5.29). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
Notify me when VALE reaches fair value
Put VALE on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals.
Full company description
Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. It extracts, produces, and distributes iron ore, iron ore pellets, briquettes, nickel, copper, other ferrous products, and by-products, including gold, silver, cobalt, platinum-group metals, and other base metals, as well as low-carbon critical minerals. The company also operates logistics systems and distribution centers, such as mining complexes, railways, and maritime terminals, ports, and ships; generates energy from hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources; and engages in greenfield mineral exploration. In addition, it is involved in research; and trading activities. The company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and changed its name to Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vale SA ADR reported revenue of $38.2B in FY2025 versus $54.5B in FY2021, a compound −8.5%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding −42.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.0 % · buybacks/dilution +2.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
VALE screens 71% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Update: Market Chatter: Vale, BHP Compensation Deal For Mariana Dam Collapse Joined by 19 More Brazilian Cities
- Vale, ABB sign deal to expand automation at Brazil iron ore plants
- Vale Base Metals to Proceed with Coarse Particle Flotation at Salobo Increasing and Accelerating Projected Copper Production
- Vale cut to Neutral at BofA, seeing less room for optimism as costs bite
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 469 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 78/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHP | A$66.84 | A$42.16 | −37% |
| Vale S.A XVALO | €12.29 | €6.62 | −46% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 65.50 SAR | 33.87 SAR | −48% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.42 | ¥16.15 | −12% |
| Teck Resources Limited TECK | $69.34 | $32.02 | −54% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹573.00 | ₹508.34 | −11% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥66.76 | ¥9.55 | −86% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | −74% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥37.85 | ¥25.99 | −31% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | −13% |
Compare Vale SA ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Vale SA ADR (VALE) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of VALE?
What is the quality score of VALE?
What is the net profit margin of VALE?
Does Vale SA ADR pay a dividend?
Continue in the live analysis
Fair value and trend for 35,000+ stocks, watchlist, comparison and the diversification check. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Open the live analysis →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.