BHP Group Limited (BHP) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · GB · Market cap 154B GBX · ISIN GB00BH0P3Z91
What is BHP Group Limited really worth?
A solid business, but trading 73% above our fair value of £19.35.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from £26.32 to £19.35 (−26.5%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +1.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£27.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (£12.88 to £27.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £13.76 – £35.72 · fair‑value band £12.88 – £27.71 · the £33.45 price screens above the £19.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
BHP Group Limited (BHP) currently trades at £33.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £19.35, implying the stock looks roughly 72.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £27.30 per share, and 4 of the 25 models we run sit above the £33.45 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £6.10, and 21 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, BHP Group Limited generated revenue of £54.0B at a net margin of 19.0%. Revenue grew 10.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.7%. Net debt stands at £12.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £12.88 (bear case) to £27.71 (bull case); at £33.45, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −42%, BHP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £0.2000 per share, which is 1.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (£27.30) versus Asset-Based (£6.10). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments.
Full company description
BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments. It also engages in the mining of copper, uranium, gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, silver, iron ore, cobalt, and metallurgical and energy coal. In addition, the company is involved in the mining, smelting, and refining of nickel, as well as potash development activities. Further, it provides towing, freight, marketing and trading, marketing support, finance, administrative, and other services. BHP Group Limited was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BHP Group Limited reported revenue of $51.3B in FY2025 versus $56.9B in FY2021, a compound −2.6%/yr. Reported net income was $9.0B in FY2025, compounding −5.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +0.6 % · buybacks/dilution +0.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
BHP screens 73% overvalued. Compare with Vale S.A →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 469 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vale S.A VALE | $15.31 | $8.95 | −42% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 65.50 SAR | 33.87 SAR | −48% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.42 | ¥16.15 | −12% |
| Teck Resources Limited TECK | $69.34 | $32.02 | −54% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹573.00 | ₹508.34 | −11% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥66.76 | ¥9.55 | −86% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | −74% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥37.85 | ¥25.99 | −31% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | −13% |
| Korea Zinc Company 010130 | 1,145,000 KRW | 646,063 KRW | −44% |
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