Boliden AB (BOL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Boliden AB SEK 464, price SEK 533, upside -12.9%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 217.76 – kr 706.64 · fair‑value band kr 263.11 – kr 613.08 · the kr 533.00 price screens above the kr 464.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
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Boliden AB (publ) engages in the extracting, producing, and recycling of base metals in Sweden, Finland, other Nordic region, Germany, the United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and internationally. The company operates through Business Area Mines and Business Area Smelters segments.
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It explores copper, zinc, nickel, lead, gold, silver, cobalt, sulphuric acid, tellurium, platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium, ruthenium, and osmium deposits.
The company operates the Aitik, the Boliden Area, and Garpenberg mines in Sweden; the Tara mine in Ireland; the Kevitsa mines in Finland; the Somincor mine in Portugal; Kokkola smelters in Finland; Odda zinc smelters in Norway; the Rönnskär smelter in Sweden; Harjavalta copper smelters in Finland; and the Bergsöe lead smelter in Sweden.
It sells its metals primarily to industrial customers. The company was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Boliden AB (BOL) currently trades at kr 533.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 464.45, 12.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 562.99 per share, and 8 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 533.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 180.53, and 16 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 263.11 (bear) to kr 613.08 (bull), the price of kr 533.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Boliden AB reported revenue of 93.5B SEK in FY2025 versus 68.6B SEK in FY2021, a compound +8.0%/yr. Reported net income was 9.4B SEK in FY2025, compounding +2.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 151B SEK (≈ $15.2B) · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 1.20 · EPS (TTM) kr 44.76 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 16.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −13%, BOL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 263.11Fair Value kr 464.45Bullkr 613.08
Price kr 533.00 · Upside -12.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 26.64 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.8% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.1% vs 13.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.7% a year for the price and +10.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Limited public data leaves little proof of a durable moat for this mining business, while the planned Nexa stake promises greater scale and metal diversification amid added execution risks.
Main risk: Integration and regulatory hurdles from the Nexa stake acquisition risk stretching resources without delivering clear benefits to scale and metal diversification in the mining operations.
Boliden is set to gain a controlling stake in Nexa Resources through an all-stock transaction that adds major zinc output and operations outside Europe. The move promises greater scale and metal diversification yet introduces execution risks around integration and regulatory hurdles ahead of the Q3 update. Will the deal strengthen the overall business enough to offset those added complexities, or will it stretch resources without clear gains?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 375 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside−12.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)12.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Boliden AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BOL
Frequently asked questions
Is Boliden AB (BOL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 464.45 versus a price of kr 533.00, about −13% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BOL?
Our model-based fair value for Boliden AB is kr 464.45 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 533.00.
What is the quality score of BOL?
Boliden AB has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Boliden AB (BOL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 464.45 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 263.11, optimistic scenario kr 613.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Boliden AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 464.45, about −13% upside versus a price of kr 533.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 263.11, optimistic scenario kr 613.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Boliden AB (BOL)?
Boliden AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 104B SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 13, 2026).
Does Boliden AB pay a dividend?
Boliden AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.06% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Boliden AB (BOL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Boliden AB would have to grow free cash flow by +17.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.7 % per year. As of Oct 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BOL use?
Our models discount Boliden AB at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.14, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Boliden AB that is +17.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Boliden AB (BOL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Boliden AB grew +10.7 % a year. The price currently implies +17.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Boliden AB (BOL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Boliden AB (+17.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Boliden AB (BOL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.46 %: that much free cash flow Boliden AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Boliden AB (BOL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Boliden AB it is kr 464.45 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of kr 533.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Boliden AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, BOL trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 533.00, fair value kr 464.45, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BOL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 533.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 464.45). For Boliden AB the two are kr 68.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Boliden AB worth?
The market values Boliden AB at about 151B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is kr 533.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 464.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BOL?
Our models span a range for Boliden AB: cautious scenario kr 263.11, base kr 464.45, optimistic kr 613.08 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price kr 533.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BOL?
Boliden AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 (as of Oct 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 464.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/B 2.0, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 6.2.
What is the PEG ratio of BOL?
The PEG ratio of Boliden AB is 2.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Boliden AB (BOL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Boliden AB (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity 16.8%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BOL from its 52-week high?
Boliden AB trades at kr 533.00, about 25% below its 52-week high of kr 706.64 and 34% above the low of kr 398.21 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 464.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Boliden AB?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, Korea Zinc Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Boliden AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price kr 533.00, calculated fair value kr 464.45 (−13%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BOL calculated?
We run Boliden AB through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 464.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Boliden AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Boliden AB (BOL)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was kr 533.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 464.45, about −13% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Boliden AB right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (kr 263.11 to kr 613.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Boliden AB (BOL) come from?
Earnings per share at Boliden AB grew +12.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.2 %, EBIT margin +2.9 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Boliden AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Boliden AB (BOL)?
The market capitalisation of Boliden AB is 151B SEK (≈ $15.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Boliden AB (BOL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Boliden AB is 1.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Boliden AB (BOL)?
Earnings per share at Boliden AB are kr 44.76 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Boliden AB (BOL)?
The dividend yield of Boliden AB is 2.1% (payout 24.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Boliden AB (BOL)?
The net margin of Boliden AB is 10.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Boliden AB (BOL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Boliden AB is 16.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Boliden AB (BOL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Boliden AB is 11.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Boliden AB (BOL)?
The operating margin of Boliden AB is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Boliden AB (BOL)?
Revenue at Boliden AB is growing +15.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Boliden AB (BOL)?
Earnings per share at Boliden AB are growing +287% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Boliden AB (BOL) carry?
The net debt of Boliden AB is 14.6B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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