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STOCK COMPARISON

BHP Group vs Valero Energy: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how BHP Group (BHP) and Valero Energy (VLO) compare, as of Sep 5, 2026.

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees BHP Group as the less overvalued of the two: BHP Group trades at £33.45 versus a fair value of £19.35 (-42%), while Valero Energy trades at $371 versus $127 (-66%).
BHP Group
BHP.LSE · GBX · Materials
-42%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price£33.45
Fair Value£19.35
Quality64/100
Valero Energy
VLO · USD · Energy
-66%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$371
Fair Value$127
Quality66/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

BHP GroupValero Energy
Valuation
19.8×P/E (TTM)22.6×
3.86×P/S (TTM)0.78×
4.51×P/B3.88×
8.2×EV/EBITDA10.5×
—PEG4.08×
−42.2%Fair value upside−65.7%
4.0%Dividend yield1.2%
£1.33Dividend per share$4.59
Profitability
41%Operating margin6%
1.19×EBIT margin trend (5Y)—
25%Return on equity16%
12%Return on assets6%
Growth
11%Revenue growth (YoY)7%
-7.7%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-11.4%
3.6%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)13.6%
+6.1%Value creation/yr+14.5%
Balance & size
10.4×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)7.8×
0.44×Debt / equity0.41×
$208BMarket cap$92B
weakGrowth qualityweak
Valuation multiples (P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA) are shown but not scored here: the two companies sit in different sectors, and multiples only compare fairly between similar business models. PEG stays scored, as it relates the P/E to growth.

BHP Group leads: 6 to 3 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

BHP Groupof which business quality 63 · market factors 78 Valero Energyof which business quality 64 · market factors 93
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
58
43
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
34
36
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
75
61
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
67
63
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
61
100
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
70
75
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
73
100
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
96
100
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
81
100

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyBHP GroupPrice £33.45Valero EnergyPrice $371
DCF Models-19%below the price£27.19-35%below the price$240
Earnings-Based-25%below the price£25.15-72%below the price$103
Dividend Discount-41%below the price£19.67n/a
Multiples-14%close to the price£28.74-64%below the price$134
Asset-Based-82%below the price£6.10-86%below the price$53.53
Growth DCF-33%below the price£22.49-19%below the price$300
Economic Profit-38%below the price£20.84-69%below the price$113
Growth Earnings-24%below the price£25.38-68%below the price$119
Minimum-82%below the price£6.10-86%below the price$53.53
Maximum-14%close to the price£28.74-19%below the price$300
Median-29%below the price£23.82-68%below the price$119
Geometric mean-40%below the price£20.23-64%below the price$133

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

BHP Group: 21 of 25 models see the stock below the current price.

Valero Energy: 24 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

BHP Group
Bear £12.88Fair Value £19.35Bull £27.71
£33.45 = current price (white tick)
Valero Energy
Bear $89.58Fair Value $127Bull $165
$371 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

BHP Group · Materials

Quality score64 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-42% · below median

Valero Energy · Energy

Quality score66 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-66% · bottom 25%

Bottom line

As of Sep 5, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees BHP Group as the less overvalued of the two: BHP Group trades at £33.45 versus a fair value of £19.35 (-42%), while Valero Energy trades at $371 versus $127 (-66%).

Valero Energy has the higher quality score (66/100).

See the full analysis →
BHP Group · Valero Energy

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.