Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $91.9B · ISIN US91913Y1001
What is Valero Energy Corporation really worth?
Valero Energy Corporation
VLO · US
A solid business, but trading 191% above our fair value of $127.32.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +20.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($165.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($89.58 to $165.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $51.77 – $370.69 · fair‑value band $89.58 – $165.05 · the $370.69 price screens above the $127.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) currently trades at $370.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $127.32, implying the stock looks roughly 191.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $244.51 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $370.69 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $53.53, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Valero Energy Corporation generated revenue of $118B at a net margin of 3.6%. Revenue grew 6.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.9%. Net debt stands at $7.0B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $89.58 (bear case) to $165.05 (bull case); at $370.69, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 197% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −66%, VLO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $6.18 per share, which is 4.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($244.51) versus Asset-Based ($53.53). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 93
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol.
Full company description
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CBOB) gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils. It sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets; and through outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco brands. The company also owns and operates renewable diesel and ethanol plants, as well as produces and sells renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and neat sustainable aviation fuel under the Diamond Green Diesel brand name. In addition, it offers ethanol and various co-products, including dry distillers grains, syrup, and inedible distillers corn oil to animal feed customers. The company was formerly known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company and changed its name to Valero Energy Corporation in August 1997. Valero Energy Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Valero Energy Corporation reported revenue of $123B in FY2025 versus $114B in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was $2.3B in FY2025, compounding +26.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.4 % · buybacks/dilution +4.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
VLO screens 191% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,314 | ₹835.66 | −36% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $368.83 | $133.18 | −64% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $246.58 | $99.41 | −60% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.28 | €3.83 | −88% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 75.80 TWD | 15.32 TWD | −80% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $87.93 | $44.96 | −49% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹318.00 | ₹846.81 | +166% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 131,500 KRW | 53,541 KRW | −59% |
| Sunoco LP, SUN | $75.55 | $53.36 | −29% |
| S-Oil Corporation 010950 | 140,900 KRW | 19,441 KRW | −86% |
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