Formosa Petrochemical Corp (6505) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · TW · Market cap 757B TWD (≈ $23.9B) · ISIN TW0006505001
What is Formosa Petrochemical Corp really worth?
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 196% above our fair value of 26.41 TWD.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 22, 2026, revised from 15.32 TWD to 26.41 TWD (+72.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +15.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (33.01 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 30.95 TWD – 108.83 TWD · fair‑value band 19.81 TWD – 33.01 TWD · the 78.10 TWD price screens above the 26.41 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Analysis
Formosa Petrochemical Corp (6505) currently trades at 78.10 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 26.41 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 195.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 31.71 TWD per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the 78.10 TWD price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 8.60 TWD, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Formosa Petrochemical Corp generated revenue of 615B TWD at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue declined 6.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 26.4B TWD. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 19.81 TWD (bear case) to 33.01 TWD (bull case); at 78.10 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 124% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −66%, 6505 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (31.71 TWD) versus Dividend Discount (8.60 TWD). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of petroleum products and petrochemical raw materials in Taiwan, Australia, South Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Mainland China, and internationally.
Full company description
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of petroleum products and petrochemical raw materials in Taiwan, Australia, South Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Mainland China, and internationally. The company offers gasoline, diesel, jet fuel/kerosene, fuel oil/asphalt/sulfur, naphtha, base oil, liquified petroleum gas, and lubricants. It also provides ethylene, propylene, butadiene, and BTX; and electricity, steam, and other utilities products. Formosa Petrochemical Corporation was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Mailiao, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Formosa Petrochemical Corp reported revenue of 626B TWD in FY2025 versus 620B TWD in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was 9.9B TWD in FY2025, compounding −33.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
6505 screens 196% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,314 | ₹835.66 | −36% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $352.36 | $127.32 | −64% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $368.83 | $133.18 | −64% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $246.58 | $99.41 | −60% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.28 | €3.83 | −88% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $87.93 | $44.96 | −49% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹318.00 | ₹846.81 | +166% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 131,500 KRW | 53,541 KRW | −59% |
| Sunoco LP, SUN | $75.55 | $53.36 | −29% |
| S-Oil Corporation 010950 | 140,900 KRW | 19,441 KRW | −86% |
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