Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · IN · Market cap ₹1.3T (≈ $14.1B) · ISIN INE029A01011
What is Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited really worth?
A solid business, trading 28% below our fair value of ₹441.28.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from ₹846.81 to ₹441.28 (−47.9%) since Aug 19, 2026. Share price −3.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹330.39). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹122.48 – ₹388.30 · fair‑value band ₹330.39 – ₹551.60 · the ₹315.70 price screens below the ₹441.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) currently trades at ₹315.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹441.28, implying the stock looks roughly 28.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ₹1,272 per share, and 25 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹315.70 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹157.08, and 1 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited generated revenue of ₹4.6T at a net margin of 5.7%. Revenue grew 6.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.5%. Net debt stands at ₹367B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ₹330.39 (bear case) to ₹551.60 (bull case); at ₹315.70, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −60% fair-value upside, at 40%, BPCL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ₹26.02 per share, which is 5.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (₹1,272) versus Asset-Based (₹157.08). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited engages in refining crude oil and marketing petroleum products in India and internationally. It operates through two segments, Downstream Petroleum; and Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons.
Full company description
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited engages in refining crude oil and marketing petroleum products in India and internationally. It operates through two segments, Downstream Petroleum; and Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons. The company operates fuel stations that sell motor spirits, high-speed diesel, blended fuels, compressed and liquefied natural gas, automotive liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and lubricants; operate convenience stores, restaurants, and electric vehicle charging facilities; and offer ATM, money transfer, insurance, and vehicle care services. It also provides LPG for domestic, commercial, and metal cutting applications under the Bharatgas brand name; automobile lubricants, such as automotive engine and gear oils, greases, and specialties, as well as industrial lubricants under the MAK brand; jet fuel; and aviation services, including transportation, storage, and intoplane services. In addition, the company offers industrial fuels products, white oils, bitumen and specialty bitumen, petcoke, sulphur, solvents, petrochemicals, bunkering, and petrochemical feedstock products; and operates pipelines to transport petroleum products. Further, it exports naphtha and fuel oils; and engages in city gas distribution activities. The company's marketing infrastructure includes a network of installations, depots, retail outlets, aviation fueling stations, and LPG distributors. The company was formerly known as Bharat Refineries Limited and changed its name to Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited in August 1977. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited was incorporated in 1952 and is based in Mumbai, India.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited reported revenue of ₹4.6T in FY2026 versus ₹3.5T in FY2022, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was ₹258B in FY2026, compounding +22.0%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +8.8 % · buybacks/dilution −0.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,314 | ₹835.66 | −36% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $352.36 | $127.32 | −64% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $368.83 | $133.18 | −64% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $246.58 | $99.41 | −60% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.28 | €3.83 | −88% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 75.80 TWD | 15.32 TWD | −80% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $87.93 | $44.96 | −49% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 131,500 KRW | 53,541 KRW | −59% |
| Sunoco LP, SUN | $75.55 | $53.36 | −29% |
| S-Oil Corporation 010950 | 140,900 KRW | 19,441 KRW | −86% |
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