Neste Oil Oyj (NESTE) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · FI · Market cap €23.6B · ISIN FI0009013296
What is Neste Oil Oyj really worth?
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 317% above our fair value of €7.66.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 30, 2026, revised from €3.83 to €7.66 (+100.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +12.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€10.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (€4.38 to €10.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.99 – €49.82 · fair‑value band €4.38 – €10.92 · the €31.96 price screens above the €7.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Neste Oil Oyj (NESTE) currently trades at €31.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.66, implying the stock looks roughly 317.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €8.64 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the €31.96 price. Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at €2.24, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Neste Oil Oyj generated revenue of €19.2B at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue grew 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at €4.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €4.38 (bear case) to €10.92 (bull case); at €31.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 252% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −76%, NESTE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.4940 per share, which is 6.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€8.64) versus Growth Earnings (€2.24). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Neste Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in Finland, other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services segments.
Full company description
Neste Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in Finland, other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services segments. It produces, markets, and sells renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and related solutions. The company also provides various oil products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation and marine fuels, light and heavy fuel oils, gasoline components, and special fuels, such as small-engine gasoline, solvents, and liquid gases for retailers and distributors, oil majors and trading companies, and companies marketing lubricants and solvents. In addition, the company markets and sells lower emission fuels, oil products, and associated digital solutions to consumers, transport service providers, aviation, shipping, industrial and agricultural, and municipalities and heating fuel customers and fuel distributors; and markets transport fuels and electric vehicle charging services. The company was formerly known as Neste Oil Oyj and changed its name to Neste Oyj in June 2015. Neste Oyj was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Neste Oil Oyj reported revenue of €19.0B in FY2025 versus €15.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.9%/yr. Reported net income was €144M in FY2025, compounding −46.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.8 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NESTE screens 317% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Neste Oyj (HLSE:NESTE) Earnings Beat And 2026 Guidance Put Valuation Back In Focus
- Neste supports the Tara Ocean Foundation's first-ever 18-month drift expedition to the Central Arctic Ocean
- Neste OYJ (NTOIF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record EBITDA and Strategic Growth Plans
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,314 | ₹835.66 | −36% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $352.36 | $127.32 | −64% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $368.83 | $133.18 | −64% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $246.58 | $99.41 | −60% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 75.80 TWD | 15.32 TWD | −80% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $87.93 | $44.96 | −49% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹318.00 | ₹846.81 | +166% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 131,500 KRW | 53,541 KRW | −59% |
| Sunoco LP, SUN | $75.55 | $53.36 | −29% |
| S-Oil Corporation 010950 | 140,900 KRW | 19,441 KRW | −86% |
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